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Growth, War, and Pandemics: Europe in the Very Long-run

Author

Listed:
  • Leandro Prados de la Escosura

    (Universidad Carlos III, CEPR)

  • Carlos-Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero

    (IITAM, Mexico, and CREATES, Aarhus University)

Abstract
This paper contributes to the debate on the origins of modern economic growth in Europe from a very long-run perspective using econometric techniques that allow for a long-range dependence approach. Different regimes, defined by endogenously estimated structural shocks, coincided with episodes of pandemics and war. The most persistent shocks occurred at the time of the Black Death and the twentieth century’s world wars. Our findings confirm that the Black Death often resulted in higher income levels, but reject the view of a uniform long-term response to the Plague while evidence a negative reaction in non-Malthusian economies. Positive trend growth in output per head and population took place in the North Sea Area (Britain and the Netherlands) since the Plague. A gap between the North Sea Area and the rest of Europe, the Little Divergence, emerged between the early seventeenth century and the Napoleonic Wars lending support to Broadberry-van Zanden’s interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Leandro Prados de la Escosura & Carlos-Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero, 2020. "Growth, War, and Pandemics: Europe in the Very Long-run," Working Papers 0185, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    • Handle: RePEc:hes:wpaper:0185
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run Growth; Little Divergence; War; Pandemics; Malthusian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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