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Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities in the European Union in 2035: Scenarios and policy implications

Author

Listed:
  • Attila Havas

    (Institute of Economics, HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Center for Innovation Systems and Policy)

  • Philipp Amann

    (Former Head of Strategy, European Cybercrime Centre, Europol)

  • Marci Letizi

    (Global Consultant of the European Commission, Council of Europe, and United Nations)

  • Holger Nitsch

    (CEPOLIS, Hochschule für den öffentlichen Dienst in Bayern)

  • Umut Turksen

    (Coventry University)

Abstract
Policy-makers – working on various domains, notably regulations, home affairs, security, science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies – need to pay close attention to possible new ways and methods for the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities. This paper is aimed at assisting these policy-makers by presenting four possible futures (scenarios) on the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities and considering their implications. These scenarios assume that the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities – just as most other types of crime – cannot be fully eradicated. There are two competing groups of actors whose capacities, activities, and efficiency largely determine the possibilities for, and repercussions of, the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities: criminal actors and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). The scenarios, therefore, are shaped by two main dimensions: i) whether LEAs are well-resourced, strong, and effective or not, and ii) whether large criminal organisations or small-scale ones are the dominant criminal actors. Hence, the four scenarios consider various types of ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors that influence actors to commit – or not – criminal economic activities; the main types of these activities; features of regulations; research, technological development, and innovation activities by the criminal actors vs LEAs; as well as the activities, capabilities, and resources of LEAs. By considering the nature of the criminal activities that aim at penetrating lawful economic activities, and the options to prevent, monitor, and fight these crimes, the report explores a range of policy implications, especially for STI policies and regulations. Further, it stresses the multi-level nature of policy-making in the EU, as well as the need for collaboration with the willing countries outside the EU. Criminal actors can penetrate lawful economic activities in the EU when commissioned by hostile (‘rogue’) states that aim to weaken and/or undermine the EU and its Member States as part of their geopolitical power games.

Suggested Citation

  • Attila Havas & Philipp Amann & Marci Letizi & Holger Nitsch & Umut Turksen, 2023. "Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities in the European Union in 2035: Scenarios and policy implications," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2337, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:2337
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keywords: Criminal economic activities; Fighting crime; Preventing crime; Information and communication technologies; Social science research; Regulation; Prospective analyses; Scenarios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O39 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Other

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