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Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie

Author

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  • Khaled Chnaina

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Farid Makhlouf

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract
Les transferts de fonds vers la Tunisie constituent une source de devises non négligeable, Ils ont augmenté d'une manière rapide notamment la dernière décennie. Ces devises engendrées par les migrants tunisiens, peuvent causer le phénomène de syndrome hollandais. Le but de ce travail est d'étudier l'impact des ces transferts sur taux de change réel effectif. En estimant des relations de co-intégration avec ruptures structurelles par l'intermédiaire de la méthode de Johansen et al. (2000) et Saikkonen et Lütkepohl (2000) et Saikkonen et al. (2004), nous avons trouvé qu'une augmentation de 1% de ratio des transferts de fonds sur PIB provoque une appréciation de taux de change réel d'équilibre de 0,39 %. Ce qui confirme l'hypothèse de syndrome hollandais dans l'économie tunisienne. Remittances in Tunisia constitute a main foreign flow, they have increased rapidly particularly over the past decade. This devises which generated by Tunisian migrants can induce Dutch disease. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between remittances and reel effective exchange rate. By estimating cointegration relations with structural breaks through the method of Johansen et al. (2000) and Saikkonen-Lütkepohl (2000) Saikkonen et al. (2004), we found that an increase in worker's remittances of 1% point of GDP is associated with an appreciation of Tunisia's real effective exchange rate by 0.39%. This result approves the hypothesis of Dutch disease in Tunisia.

Suggested Citation

  • Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2012. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," Working papers of CATT hal-01885155, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpcatt:hal-01885155
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-univ-pau.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01885155
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    1. Nader NEFZI & Joël OUDINET & Mouez SOUSSI, 2020. "Transferts de fonds des migrants et mésalignement du change réel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 87-114.
    2. Farid Farid, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate policy on remittances in Morocco: A Threshold VAR analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2351-2360.
    3. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Amal Miftah, 2019. "The relationship between remittances and macroeconomic variables in times of political and social upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia's Arab Spring," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 355-394, February.
    4. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2021. "The role of remittances in times of socio-political unrest: Evidence from Tunisia," Working Papers hal-03263815, HAL.
    5. Moukpè Gniniguè & Essossinam Ali, 2022. "Migrant Remittances and Economic Growth in ECOWAS Countries: Does Digitalization Matter?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(5), pages 2517-2542, October.
    6. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Colin F. Mang, 2022. "Do remittances cause Dutch Disease? A meta-analytic review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(36), pages 4131-4153, August.

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