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Profit Shifting Frictions and the Geography of Multinational Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Ferrari

    (UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich)

  • Sébastien Laffitte

    (ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles)

  • Mathieu Parenti

    (ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles)

  • Farid Toubal

    (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
International tax rules are commonly viewed as obsolete as multinational corporations exploit loopholes to move their profits to tax havens. This paper uncovers how international tax reforms can curb profit shifting and impact real income and welfare across nations. We introduce profit shifting and corporate taxation in a quantitative model of multinational production. The model delivers "triangle identities" through which we recover bilateral profit-shifting flows. Our estimates of both tax-base and profitshifting elasticities, together with profit-shifting frictions, govern how taxes shape the geography of production and profits. Our model accommodates a rich set of corporate taxation scenarios. A global minimum tax would be beneficial for welfare since it would increase the public good provision and encourage countries to raise their statutory corporate tax rates. Instead, a border-adjustment tax that eliminates profit shifting could result in welfare losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Ferrari & Sébastien Laffitte & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2022. "Profit Shifting Frictions and the Geography of Multinational Activity," Working Papers halshs-04103710, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04103710
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04103710
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petr Janský & Miroslav Palanský, 2019. "Estimating the scale of profit shifting and tax revenue losses related to foreign direct investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1048-1103, October.
    2. Fuest, Clemens & Hugger, Felix & Neumeier, Florian, 2022. "Corporate profit shifting and the role of tax havens: Evidence from German country-by-country reporting data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 454-477.
    3. Ronald B. Davies & Julien Martin & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2018. "Knocking on Tax Haven’s Door: Multinational Firms and Transfer Pricing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 120-134, March.
    4. Sébastien Laffitte & Farid Toubal, 2022. "Multinationals' Sales and Profit Shifting in Tax Havens," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 371-396, November.
    5. Clausing, Kimberly A., 2003. "Tax-motivated transfer pricing and US intrafirm trade prices," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2207-2223, September.
    6. Hebous, Shafik & Johannesen, Niels, 2021. "At your service! The role of tax havens in international trade with services," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Taxing across Borders: Tracking Personal Wealth and Corporate Profits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 121-148, Fall.
    8. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Janský, Petr, 2024. "Profit shifting of multinational corporations worldwide," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    9. Anca D. Cristea & Daniel X. Nguyen, 2016. "Transfer Pricing by Multinational Firms: New Evidence from Foreign Firm Ownerships," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 170-202, August.
    10. Thomas Wright & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "The Exorbitant Tax Privilege," NBER Working Papers 24983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "Global profit shifting, 1975-2019," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-121, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Alviarez, Vanessa, 2019. "Multinational production and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-54.
    13. Kimberly A. Clausing, 2020. "Profit Shifting before and after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(4), pages 1233-1266, December.
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    18. Javier Garcia-Bernardo & Jan Fichtner & Eelke M. Heemskerk & Frank W. Takes, 2017. "Uncovering Offshore Financial Centers: Conduits and Sinks in the Global Corporate Ownership Network," Papers 1703.03016, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Hauer & Hayato Kato, 2024. "A Global Minimum Tax for Large Firms Only: Implications for Tax Competition," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 24-06, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Chen, Xuyang, 2024. "The Global Minimum Tax, Investment Incentives and Asymmetric Tax Competition," MPRA Paper 121893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Xuyang Chen, 2024. "The Global Minimum Tax, Investment Incentives and Asymmetric Tax Competition," Papers 2409.05397, arXiv.org.
    4. Jaqueline Hansen & Valeria Merlo & Georg Wamser, 2023. "Taxes, Profit Shifting, and the Real Activities of MNEs: Evidence from Corporate Tax Notches," CESifo Working Paper Series 10593, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Profit Shifting; Tax Avoidance; Tax Havens; International Tax Reforms; Minimum Taxation; DBCFT; Multinational firms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H73 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Interjurisdictional Differentials and Their Effects

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