[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-02153840.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogenous fluctuations and the balanced-budget rule: taxes versus spending-based adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Maxime Menuet

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alexandru Minea

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrick Villieu

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [FRE2014] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
The present paper develops a simple theoretical setup to examine the role of the tax-spending mix of fiscal adjustments on aggregate (in)stability in indebted economies. To this end, we build an AK endogenous growth model with public debt dynamics. If the adjustment of the government's budget constraint is based on a single instrument (taxes or public spending), the economy converges towards a high-growth path. With mixed adjustment, however, another equilibrium appears (the no-growth path) that can be locally over-determine (unstable) or under-determined (stable). A hopf bifurcation can occurs at the border between the last two cases, which leads to cyclical dynamics. We also show that global indeterminacy is likely to emerge if fiscal adjustment is mainly based on public spending. A calibration of the model shows that area of indeterminacy covers reasonable values for parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Endogenous fluctuations and the balanced-budget rule: taxes versus spending-based adjustment," Working Papers hal-02153840, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02153840
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02153840
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-02153840/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 2001. "Growing through Cycles in an Infinitely Lived Agent Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 220-234, October.
    2. Roberto Perotti, 2012. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 307-354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    4. Arnaud Cheron & Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2019. "Growth and Public Debt: What Are the Relevant Trade‐Offs?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 655-682, March.
    5. Boucekkine, Raouf & Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2015. "Introduction to financial frictions and debt constraints," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 271-275.
    6. Briotti, Maria Gabriella, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation: a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2013. "Destabilizing balanced-budget consumption taxes in multi-sector economies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 113-130, March.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jess Benhabib & Qinglai Meng & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Indeterminacy Under Constant Returns to Scale in Multisector Economies," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 403-412, Springer.
    12. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2007. "Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1423-1435, October.
    13. Guo, Jang-Ting & Harrison, Sharon G., 2004. "Balanced-budget rules and macroeconomic (in)stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 357-363, December.
    14. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    15. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 311-346, Springer.
    16. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2013. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustments," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 19-68.
    17. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2018. "Deficit, monetization, and economic growth: a case for multiplicity and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 819-853, June.
    18. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    19. Paolo Mattana & Kazuo Nishimura & Tadashi Shigoka, 2012. "Homoclinic Bifurcation and Global Indeterminacy of Equilibrium in a Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Model," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 427-451, Springer.
    20. Benhabib, Jess & Perli, Roberto & Xie, Danyang, 1994. "Monopolistic competition, indeterminacy and growth," MPRA Paper 37411, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1994.
    21. Nishimura, Kazuo & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2015. "Fiscal policy, debt constraint and expectations-driven volatility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 305-316.
    22. Brown, Jeffrey R. (ed.), 2010. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226076737, July.
    23. Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The "Austerity myth": Gain Without Pain?," BIS Working Papers 362, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448, Elsevier.
    25. Maria Gabriella Briotti, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation - a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    26. Brito, Paulo & Venditti, Alain, 2010. "Local and global indeterminacy in two-sector models of endogenous growth," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 893-911, September.
    27. Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2012. "Persistent Deficit, Growth, And Indeterminacy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 267-283, September.
    28. John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), 2012. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-22397-6, January.
    29. Kazuo Mino & Kazuo Nishimura & Koji Shimomura & Ping Wang, 2008. "Equilibrium dynamics in discrete-time endogenous growth models with social constant returns," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 34(1), pages 1-23, January.
    30. Alexandru Minea & Maxime Menuet & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Public Debt, Fiscal Space and Endogenous Growth Cycles," Post-Print hal-02315201, HAL.
    31. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 335-348, March.
    32. Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," Working Papers 430, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    33. Jang‐Ting Guo & Sharon G. Harrison, 2008. "Useful Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In)stability under Balanced‐Budget Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(3), pages 383-397, June.
    34. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2013. "Destabilizing balanced-budget consumption taxes in multi-sector economies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 113-130, March.
    35. Alberto Alesina & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2018. "What Do We Know about the Effects of Austerity?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 524-530, May.
    36. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Pete Devries, 2011. "A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 2011/128, International Monetary Fund.
    37. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    38. Perotti, Roberto, 2011. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Jeffrey R. Brown, 2010. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brow09-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Increasing Returns, Balanced-Budget Rules, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Post-Print hal-02315041, HAL.
    2. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "The Peril of Fiscal Rules," Post-Print hal-02314996, HAL.
    3. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2017. "Public Debt, Endogenous Growth Cycles and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2467, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    4. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Budget Rules, Distortionnary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability: A reappraisal," Working Papers hal-02153856, HAL.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 99-132, February.
    6. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Klemm, Alexander, 2016. "The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 265-279.
    7. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2018. "Balanced‐Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Endogenous Capital Utilization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1669-1709, December.
    8. Alessandro Piergallini, 2021. "Is fiscal austerity really self‐defeating?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(6), pages 1228-1260, December.
    9. Bella, Giovanni & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2017. "Shilnikov chaos in the Lucas model of endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 451-477.
    10. Menzie Chinn, 2013. "fiscal multipliers," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. T. Buyse & F. Heylen, 2012. "Leaving the empirical (battle)ground: Output and welfare effects of fiscal consolidation in general equilibrium," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/826, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2017. "Austerity & Competitiveness in the Eurozone: a misleading linkage," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0223, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    13. Paternesi Meloni, Walter, 2016. "Austerity and competitiveness in the Eurozone: a misleading linkage," MPRA Paper 75962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab, 2012. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: An Analysis with an Estimated DSGE Model for the Hungarian Economy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 945, OECD Publishing.
    15. Branimir Jovanovic, 2017. "Growth forecast errors and government investment and consumption multipliers," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 83-107, January.
    16. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2013. "Forecasting fiscal variables: Only a strong growth plan can sustain the Greek austerity programs - Evidence from simultaneous and structural models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George & Livada, Alexandra, 2016. "Business cycle synchronisation in EMU: Can fiscal policy bring member-countries closer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 551-563.
    18. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    19. Canale, Rosaria Rita & De Simone, Elina & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Financial markets and fiscal discipline in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 490-499.
    20. Gennaro Zezza, 2012. "The impact of fiscal austerity in the Eurozone," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(0), pages 37-54.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous growth; indeterminacy; balanced-budget rules; hopf bifurcation;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02153840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.