[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01065037.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using ARIMA Forecasts to Explore the Efficiency of the Forward Reichsmark Market : Austria-Hungary, 1876-1914

Author

Listed:
  • John Komlos

    (Department of Economics - Tilburg University [Netherlands])

  • Marc Flandreau

    (Centre for Finance and Development - GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES)

Abstract
We explore the efficiency of the forward reichsmark market in Vienna between 1876 and 1914. We estimate ARIMA models of the spot exchange rate in order to forecast the one-month-ahead spot rate. In turn we compare these forecasts to the contemporaneous forward rate, i.e., the market's forecast of the future spot rate. We find that shortly after the introduction of a "shadow" gold standard in the mid-1890s the forward rate became a considerably better predictor of the future spot rate than during the prior flexible exchange rate regime. Between 1907 and 1914 forecast errors were between a half and one-fourth of their pre-1896 level. This implies that the Austro-Hungarian Bank's policy of defending the gold value of the currency was successful in improving the efficiency of the foreign exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • John Komlos & Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Using ARIMA Forecasts to Explore the Efficiency of the Forward Reichsmark Market : Austria-Hungary, 1876-1914," Working Papers hal-01065037, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01065037
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01065037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01065037/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Komlos & Marc Flandreau, "undated". "Core or Periphery? The Credibility of the Austro-Hungarian Currency, 1867-1913," Articles by John Komlos 4, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/326 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2006. "Currency Mismatches, Default Risk, and Exchange Rate Depreciation: Evidence from the End of Bimetallism," NBER Working Papers 12299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/326 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Richard C.K. Burdekin & Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2012. "Irving Fisher and Price-Level Targeting in Austria: Was Silver the Answer?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 733-750, June.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/602 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt," NBER Chapters, in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 139-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/602 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/602 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Marc Flandreau & John Komlos, 2005. "Target zones in History and Theory : efficiency, credibility and policy autonomy," Working Papers hal-01065605, HAL.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/326 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Komlos, John & Flandreau, Marc, 2002. "Using ARIMA Forecasts to Explore the Efficiency of the Forward Reichsmark Market," Discussion Papers in Economics 8, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    12. Christopher M. Meissner, 2002. "A New World Order: Explaining the Emergence of the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 9233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/326 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/602 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01065037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.