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Change rules for hierarchical beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Bernard Walliser

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Denis Zwirn

    (CREA - Centre de recherche en épistémologie appliquée - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
The paper builds a belief hierarchy as a framework common to all uncertainty measures expressing that an actor is ambiguous about his uncertain beliefs. The belief hierarchy is further interpreted by distinguishing physical and psychical worlds, associated to objective and subjective probabilities. Various rules of transformation of a belief hierarchy are introduced, especially changing subjective beliefs into objective ones. These principles are applied in order to relate different contexts of belief change, revising, updating and even focusing. The numerous belief change rules already proposed in the literature receive epistemic justifications by associating them to specific belief hierarchies and change contexts. As a result, it is shown that the resiliency of probability judgments may have some limits and be reconciled with the possibility of learning from factual messages.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Walliser & Denis Zwirn, 2011. "Change rules for hierarchical beliefs," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754559, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-00754559
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2009.11.005
    as

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