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Capital Flows in an Aging World

Author

Listed:
  • Zsofia Barany

    (CEU - Central European University [Budapest, Hongrie], CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Nicolas Coeurdacier

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Stéphane Guibaud

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
We investigate the importance of worldwide demographic evolutions in shaping capital flows across countries. Our lifecycle model incorporates crosscountry differences in fertility and longevity as well as differences in countries' ability to borrow inter-temporally and across generations through social security. In this environment, global aging triggers uphill capital flows from emerging to advanced economies, while country-specific demographic evolutions reallocate capital towards countries aging more slowly. Our quantitative multi-country overlapping generations model explains a large fraction of long-term capital flows across advanced and emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2023. "Capital Flows in an Aging World," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03803869, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03803869
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103707
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03803869
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    6. Liu, Weifeng Larry, 2022. "Demographic change, national saving and international capital flows," Conference papers 333413, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Mai Dao & Callum Jones, 2018. "Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2018/264, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Wu, Feifei & Xu, Peipei & Gao, Bo & Ma, Jing, 2024. "Export contraction and input switching in an aging China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Noëmie Lisack & Rana Sajedi & Gregory Thwaites, 2021. "Population Aging and the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 43-80, June.
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    11. Goto, Eiji, 2023. "International comovement of r∗: A case study of the G7 countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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    14. Jacopo Bonchi & Guido Caracciolo, 2022. "Declining US Natural Interest Rate: Quantifying and Qualifying the Role of Pensions," Working Papers 506, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2022.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; Household Saving; International Capital Flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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