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Quelle dette publique à l’horizon 2030 en France ?

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract
The financial and banking crisis in France, as in all industrialized countries, has had a considerable impact on the activity and evolution of public finances. If the lack of activity accumulated since the beginning of the crisis is expected to take over the next decade, the level of public debt (percent of GDP), however, should keep long-term effect of this crisis (2030). The purpose of this paper is to assess from different growth scenarios, the different trajectories of balances and public debt over the next two decades. Finally, beyond the uncertainties concerning the evolution of long term growth, we tested sensitivity to long-term debt to several assumptions (sustained rise in interest rates, fiscal policy more or less restrictive, etc.).

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2010. "Quelle dette publique à l’horizon 2030 en France ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461741, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03461741
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.112.0005
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03461741
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christophe Blot & Xavier Timbeau, 2009. "Du chaos financier au K.O. économique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 149-178.
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    8. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460510, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Croissance à moyen terme; Finances publiques; Sortie de crise;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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