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Episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Auray

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique [Bruz] - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz])

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
This paper proposes a straight model-based analysis of historical war episodes. We analyze the effects of world wars on the macroeconomic dynamics in the US, France, Germany, and the UK, by means of an estimated open-economy model where war episodes are modeled as an additional source of observed shocks. The model allows war episodes to affect the economy through lower capital depreciation, partial default on public debt, a military draft, changes in household preferences, and spillovers on other shocks (productivity, investment, trade, policy variables). In the US, the bulk of fluctuations during war episodes can be mainly explained by the rise in government spending, and the war shock plays a minor role. In other countries, the war shock is an essential driver of fluctuations. We also discuss the size and state-dependence of public spending multipliers, and produce a counterfactual exercise to quantify the welfare losses from war episodes.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem, 2019. "Episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model," Post-Print halshs-02193352, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02193352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.06.005
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02193352v1
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    2. Aloui, Rym & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "Spending multipliers with distortionary taxes: Does the level of public debt matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 275-293.
    3. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    4. Maria Alina Carataș & Elena Cerasela Spătariu, 2019. "Global Economy Under Trade War," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 63-66, August.
    5. Artuc,Erhan & Gomez Parra,Nicolas & Onder,Harun, 2022. "The True Cost of War," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10217, The World Bank.
    6. Federle, Jonathan & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot & Schularick, Moritz, 2024. "The Price of War," CEPR Discussion Papers 18834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Federle, Jonathan & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J. & Mutschler, Willi & Schularick, Moritz, 2024. "The price of war," Kiel Working Papers 2262, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
      • Federle, Jonathan & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J. & Mutschler, Willi & Schularick, Moritz, 2024. "The price of war," Kiel Policy Brief 171, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Herrera Luis & Vázquez Jesús, 2023. "Interpreting Structural Shocks and Assessing Their Historical Importance," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 375-425, January.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/32r3ebde539odb82dkmep529vf is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5e33qpbdeh9pgbbfkkp2ddbtam is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taxes; Debt; Trade; War; Multipliers; Welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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