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Level of aggregation of zoning and temporal transferability of the gravity distribution model: The case of Lyon

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Cabrera Delgado

    (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrick Bonnel

    (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
This study deals with the temporal transferability of the parameters of the gravity model of trip distribution and focuses on the trade-off between spatial resolution and data requirements. The models are calibrated using O–D matrices constructed from the three most recent Lyon household travel surveys (1985, 1995 and 2006) and generalised travel time data from coded transport networks for the three dates. Calibration has been conducted for three different zoning levels which have been chosen in line with common practice. The parameters obtained from model calibration are then applied to estimate O–D matrices at a later date and the results are compared using indicators that have been established for the zoning level applied in calibration, but also using indicators that have been aggregated in two different ways: aggregation to create larger zones or distance segments. Our findings confirm our initial intuition: the choice of zoning is fundamentally important. Moreover, in the best case, the parameters of the model change, but not sufficiently for the goodness-of-fit of the "predicted" model to be very different from that of the matrix obtained during calibration. It is possible to use the gravity model for forecasting purposes, but on condition that the goals of the study are compatible with the level of error in the reproduction of the observed matrices. If the zoning is either too coarse or too fine grained, forecasting performance is compromised.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Cabrera Delgado & Patrick Bonnel, 2016. "Level of aggregation of zoning and temporal transferability of the gravity distribution model: The case of Lyon," Post-Print halshs-01328761, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01328761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.10.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ghadiri, Mehdi & Rassafi, Amir Abbas & Mirbaha, Babak, 2019. "The effects of traffic zoning with regular geometric shapes on the precision of trip production models," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 150-159.
    3. Yanzhe Cui & Pengjun Zhao & Ling Li & Juan Li & Mingyuan Gong & Yiling Deng & Zihuang Si & Shuaichen Yan & Xuewei Dang, 2024. "A new model for residential location choice using residential trajectory data," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Bouzouina, Louafi & Baraklianos, Ioannis & Bonnel, Patrick & Aissaoui, Hind, 2021. "Renters vs owners: The impact of accessibility on residential location choice. Evidence from Lyon urban area, France (1999–2013)," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 72-84.
    5. Oshan, Taylor M., 2020. "Potential and pitfalls of big transport data for spatial interaction models of urban mobility," OSF Preprints gwumt, Center for Open Science.
    6. He, Mingyi & Bogomolov, Yuri & Khulbe, Devashish & Sobolevsky, Stanislav, 2023. "Distance deterrence comparison in urban commute among different socioeconomic groups: A normalized linear piece-wise gravity model," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Pani, Agnivesh & Sahu, Prasanta K. & Chandra, Aitichya & Sarkar, Ashoke K., 2019. "Assessing the extent of modifiable areal unit problem in modelling freight (trip) generation: Relationship between zone design and model estimation results," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Krug, Jean & Burianne, Arthur & Bécarie, Cécile & Leclercq, Ludovic, 2021. "Refining trip starting and ending locations when estimating travel-demand at large urban scale," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model; Temporal transferability; Zoning; Lyon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

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