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Portée et limites du modèle Taxipp pour l'analyse redistributive des prélèvements obligatoires

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Bozio

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)

  • Malka Guillot

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Quentin Lafféter

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract
Cet article présente le modèle Taxipp, un modèle de microsimulation des prélèvements obligatoires français, qui permet de simuler de façon classique des législations contre factuelles, passées ou présentes, sur un échantillon représentatif de la population française. Le modèle se distingue des approches standards de microsimulation statique en portant un soin particulier à l'imputation de la distribution des hauts revenus et en calant l'ensemble des données sur les informations agrégées de la comptabilité nationale. Le modèle permet ainsi d'offrir des décompositions au niveau micro des mesures de l'ensemble des prélèvements obligatoires en cohérence avec l'approche macroéconomique de la fiscalité présentée par la comptabilité nationale. Il permet par ailleurs de présenter des analyses fines de réformes fiscales au sommet de la distribution des revenus, sur lesquels se concentre souvent le débat public. Un tel exercice a pourtant ses limites. La première est le caractère incontournable des hypothèses d'incidence, en particulier pour les prélèvements réalisés nominalement sur les entreprises ; l'absence de consensus sur l'incidence fiscale de l'impôt sur les bénéfices des sociétés conduit ainsi à des variantes sensiblement différentes. La seconde limite vient des contradictions entre les différentes sources agrégées (comptabilité nationale, sources fiscales) qui sont difficiles à réconcilier. Ces limites ne sont pas dirimantes ; au contraire, elles ouvrent de nombreuses pistes de recherches ultérieures visant à améliorer l'adéquation des approches micro et macro de l'analyse des systèmes socio fiscaux.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Bozio & Malka Guillot & Quentin Lafféter, 2015. "Portée et limites du modèle Taxipp pour l'analyse redistributive des prélèvements obligatoires," Post-Print halshs-01311323, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01311323
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    1. Antoine Ferey, 2018. "Housing Benefits and Monetary Incentives to Work: Simulations for France," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 503-504, pages 37-59.

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