[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00944864.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal fertility along the life cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Pestieau

    (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Grégory Ponthière

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract
We explore the optimal fertility timing in a four-period OLG economy with physical capital, whose specificity is to include not one, but two reproduction periods. It is shown that, for a given total fertility rate, the economy exhibits quite different dynamics, depending on the timing of births. If all births take place in the late reproduction period, there exists no stable stationary equilibrium and the economy exhibits cyclical dynamics due to labor growth fluctuations. We characterize the long-run social optimum and show that optimal consumptions and capital depend on the optimal cohort growth factor, so that there is no one-to-one substitutability between early and late fertility. We also extend Samuelson's Serendipity Theorem to our economy and study the robustness of our results to: (1) endogenizing fertility timing, (2) assuming rational anticipations about factor prices, (3) adding a third reproduction period.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2014. "Optimal fertility along the life cycle," Post-Print halshs-00944864, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00944864
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-013-0747-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michel, Philippe & Pestieau, P, 1993. "Population Growth and Optimality: When Does Serendipity Hold?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 6(4), pages 353-362, November.
    2. Ermisch, John & Ogawa, Naohiro, 1994. "Age at Motherhood in Japan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 393-420, November.
    3. David De La Croix & Géraldine Mahieu & Alexandra Rillaers, 2004. "How Should the Allocation of Resources Adjust to the Baby Bust?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 607-636, October.
    4. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2015. "Optimal life-cycle fertility in a Barro-Becker economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 45-87, January.
    5. David Croix & Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2012. "How powerful is demography? The Serendipity Theorem revisited," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 899-922, July.
    6. Klaus Jaeger & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2009. "The optimum growth rate for population reconsidered," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 23-41, January.
    7. Cigno, Alessandro & Ermisch, John, 1989. "A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 737-760, April.
    8. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-1059, October.
    9. Heather Joshi, 2002. "Production, Reproduction, and Education: Women, Children, and Work in a British Perspective," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(3), pages 445-474, September.
    10. Medio,Alfredo & Lines,Marji, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521558747, September.
    11. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Schubert, Katheline, 2010. "Demographic-economic equilibria when the age at motherhood is endogenous," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1211-1221, November.
    12. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
    13. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-538, October.
    14. Deardorff, Alan V, 1976. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population: Comment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 510-515, June.
    15. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151, September.
    16. Gemma Abio, 2003. "Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(4), pages 1-7.
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Siv Gustafsson, 2001. "Optimal age at motherhood. Theoretical and empirical considerations on postponement of maternity in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247.
    19. Abío, G. & Mahieu, G. & Patxot, C., 2004. "On the optimality of PAYG pension systems in an endogenous fertility setting," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 35-62, March.
    20. Pierre Pestieau & Emmanuel Thibault, 2012. "Love thy children or money," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(1), pages 31-57, May.
    21. PESTIEAU, Pierre & THIBAULT, Emmanuel, 2012. "Love thy children or money. Reflections on debt neutrality and estate taxation," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2396, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    22. Medio,Alfredo & Lines,Marji, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521551861, September.
    23. John Ermisch & David Pevalin, 2005. "Early motherhood and later partnerships," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(3), pages 469-489, September.
    24. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
    25. Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu, 2012. "Infectious diseases and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(1), pages 125-149, May.
    26. repec:pse:psecon:2009-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2017. "Optimal fertility under age-dependent labour productivity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 621-646, April.
    2. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances, and Social Security," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 385-413, October.
    3. de la Croix, David & Pommeret, Aude, 2021. "Childbearing postponement, its option value, and the biological clock," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. GABSZEWICZ, Jean J. & VAN YPERSELE, Tanguy & ZANAJ, Skerdilajda, 2011. "Does the seller of a house facing a large number of buyers always decrease its price when its first offer is rejected?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011049, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Gregory Ponthiere, 2016. "Utilitarian population ethics and births timing," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 189-238, April.
    6. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    7. Asako Ohinata & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2020. "Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1640-1670, October.
    8. Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and Labor Market Responses to Reductions in Mortality," IZA Discussion Papers 11716, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Klaus Prettner & David Canning, 2014. "Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement in general equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(1), pages 191-217, May.
    10. Momota, Akira & Sakagami, Tomoya & Shibata, Akihisa, 2019. "Reexamination of the Serendipity Theorem from the stability viewpoint," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 43-70, March.
    11. Gregory Ponthiere, 2016. "The contribution of improved joint survival conditions to living standards: an equivalent consumption approach," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 46(2), pages 407-449, February.
    12. Gordon, Sidartha & Marlats, Chantal & Ménager, Lucie, 2021. "Observation delays in teams and effort cycles," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 276-298.
    13. Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2016. "Long-term care and births timing," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 340-357.
    14. Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Postponement, career development and fertility rebound," Working Papers hal-03862590, HAL.
    15. VAN VYVE, Mathieu, 2011. "Linear prices for non-convex electricity markets: models and algorithms," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011050, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    16. Nicolas Abad & Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "New fertility patterns: The role of human versus physical capital," Working Papers hal-04577278, HAL.
    17. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2015. "Optimal life-cycle fertility in a Barro-Becker economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 45-87, January.
    18. Bhalotra, Sonia & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and labor market responses to reductions in mortality," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    19. Thomas I. Renström & Luca Spataro, 2015. "Population Growth and Human Capital: A Welfarist Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 110-141, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Croix & Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2012. "How powerful is demography? The Serendipity Theorem revisited," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 899-922, July.
    2. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2015. "Optimal life-cycle fertility in a Barro-Becker economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 45-87, January.
    3. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    4. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances, and Social Security," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 385-413, October.
    5. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
    6. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2017. "Optimal fertility under age-dependent labour productivity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 621-646, April.
    7. Momota, Akira & Sakagami, Tomoya & Shibata, Akihisa, 2019. "Reexamination of the Serendipity Theorem from the stability viewpoint," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 43-70, March.
    8. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2010. "Family Policies And The Optimal Population Growth Rate: Closed And Small Open Economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 96-123, February.
    9. Stefan Felder, 2016. "“How powerful is demography? The serendipity theorem revisited” comment on De la Croix et al. (2012)," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 957-967, July.
    10. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2018. "The serendipity theorem for an endogenous open economy growth model," MERIT Working Papers 2018-001, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    11. Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Luci Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2015. "Avoir un enfant plus tard: Enjeux sociodémographiques du report des naissances," Post-Print halshs-01245523, HAL.
    12. Hippolyte D'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2015. "AVOIR UN ENFANT PLUS TARD Enjeux sociodémographiques du report des naissances," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01298929, HAL.
    13. Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Fair Accumulation under Risky Lifetime," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(2), pages 210-230, May.
    14. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00746913 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Klaus Jaeger & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2009. "The optimum growth rate for population reconsidered," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 23-41, January.
    16. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00575095 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Stelter, Robert, 2016. "Over-aging — Are present-day human populations too old?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 116-143.
    18. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2012. "PAYG pensions, tax-cum-subsidy and A-Pareto efficiency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 65-71.
    19. repec:hal:journl:hal-01298929 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Stelter, Robert, 2014. "Over-aging: Are present human populations too old?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 137, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    21. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Eduardo L. Giménez & Mikel Pérez-Nievas, 2010. "Millian Efficiency with Endogenous Fertility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(1), pages 154-187.
    22. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Public Expenditure on Health and Private Old-Age Insurance in an OLG Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Chaotic Dynamics Under Perfect Foresight," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 333-353, December.
    23. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Schubert, Katheline, 2010. "Demographic-economic equilibria when the age at motherhood is endogenous," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1211-1221, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Childbearing ages; Early and late motherhoods; Fertility Overlapping générations; Social optimum;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00944864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.