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Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Jamel Saadaoui

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
The paper investigates if the most popular alternative to the purchasing parity power approach (PPP) to estimate equilibrium exchange rates, the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) influences exchange rate dynamics in the long run. For a large panel of industrialized and emerging countries and on the period 1982-2007, we detect the presence of unit roots in the series of real effective exchange rates and in the series of FEERs. We find and estimate a cointegration relationship between real effective exchange rates and FEERs. The results show that the FEER has a positive and significant influence on exchange rate dynamics in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Post-Print halshs-00593674, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00593674
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00593674v3
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    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00593674v3/document
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seeun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels : A FEER Approach," Post-Print hal-02169238, HAL.
    2. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    4. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    5. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
    6. Didier Borowski & Cecile Couharde, 2003. "The Exchange Rate Macroeconomic Balance Approach: New Methodology and Results for the Euro, the Dollar, the Yen and the Pound Sterling," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 169-190, April.
    7. William R. Cline, 2008. "Estimating Consistent Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Paper Series WP08-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    9. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, April.
    10. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and World Imbalances: a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," Post-Print halshs-00484808, HAL.
    11. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
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    13. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
    14. repec:cii:cepiei:2010-4tb is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    16. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1161-1182.
    17. Su Zhou, 1993. "Fundamental equilibrium exchange rates and exchange rate dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 189-209, June.
    18. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and International Imbalances a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 124, pages 31-74.
    19. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    20. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    21. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution. Comment s'ajuster en union monétaire," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 57-96.
    2. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," MPRA Paper 42554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Post-Brexit FEER," Working Papers of BETA 2016-51, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. Yu Hsing, 2015. "Short-Run Determinants of the USD/MYR Exchange Rate," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 97-105.
    5. Jamel Saadaoui & Jacques Mazier & Nabil Aflouk, 2013. "On the determinants of exchange rate misalignments," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1608-1610, December.
    6. Jamel Saadaoui, 2012. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," CEPN Working Papers halshs-00750551, HAL.
    7. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignments, Fiscal Federalism and Redistribution: How to Adjust in a Monetary Union," Post-Print halshs-00848886, HAL.
    8. Jamel Saadaoui, 2017. "Internal Devaluations and Equilibrium Exchange Rates: New Evidences and Perspectives for the EMU," Working Papers halshs-01633389, HAL.
    9. Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," Post-Print halshs-00861163, HAL.
    10. Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Post-Brexit FEER," CEPN Working Papers hal-01394814, HAL.
    11. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00829460 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:cepnwp:halshs-00829460 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Sur la situation des mésalignements de taux de change après le Brexit," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 35(1), pages 9-13, December.
    14. Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Post-Brexit FEER," Working Papers hal-01394814, HAL.
    15. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Pascal Petit & Jamel Saadaoui, 2015. "The Future of the Euro," Post-Print hal-01399157, HAL.
      • Duwicquet, Vincent & Mazier, Jacques & Petit, Pascal & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "The future of the euro," MPRA Paper 67690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "Global imbalances: Should we use fundamental equilibrium exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 383-398.
    17. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Jamel Saadaoui, 2017. "Internal Devaluations and Equilibrium Exchange Rates: New Evidences and Perspectives for the EMU," CEPN Working Papers halshs-01633389, HAL.
    19. Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Sur la situation des mésalignements de taux de change après le Brexit," Post-Print hal-02453601, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fundamental equilibrium exchange rates; Panel unit root tests; Global imbalances; Fully modified ordinary least square; Dynamic ordinary least square; Pooled Mean Group;
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