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On Abel's Concept of Doubt and Pessimism

Author

Listed:
  • Elyès Jouini

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Clotilde Napp

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
In this paper, we characterize subjective probability beliefs leading to a higher equilibrium market price of risk. We establish that Abel's result on the impact of doubt on the risk premium is not correct (see Abel, A., 2002. An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 1075-1092). We introduce, on the set of subjective probability beliefs, market price of risk dominance concepts and we relate them to well known dominance concepts used for comparative statics in portfolio choice analysis. In particular, the necessary first order conditions on subjective probability beliefs in order to increase the market price of risk for all nondecreasing utility functions appear as equivalent to the monotone likelihood ratio property.

Suggested Citation

  • Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2008. "On Abel's Concept of Doubt and Pessimism," Post-Print halshs-00176611, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00176611
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00176611v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Christian Gollier, 1997. "A Note on Portfolio Dominance," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(1), pages 147-150.
    3. Giordani, Paolo & Söderlind, Paul, 2002. "Is there Evidence of Pessimism and Doubt in Subjective Distributions? A Comment on Abel," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 519, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2003.
    4. Pok-sang Lam & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September.
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    6. Gollier Christian, 1995. "The Comparative Statics of Changes in Risk Revisited," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 522-535, August.
    7. Abel, Andrew B., 2002. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1075-1092, July.
    8. Ormiston Michael B. & Schlee Edward E., 1993. "Comparative Statics under Uncertainty for a Class of Economic Agents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 412-422, December.
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    11. Hadar, Josef & Seo, Tae Kun, 1990. "The Effects of Shifts in a Return Distribution on Optimal Portfolios," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 721-736, August.
    12. Gollier, Christian & Schlesinger, Harris, 2002. "Changes in risk and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 747-760, May.
    13. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    14. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2006. "Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? Implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1027-1043, June.
    15. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March.
    16. Michael Landsberger & Isaac Meilijson, 1993. "Mean-preserving Portfolio Dominance," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 479-485.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp & Diego Nocetti, 2013. "Collective risk aversion," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 40(2), pages 411-437, February.
    2. Diego Nocetti & Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2008. "Properties of the Social Discount Rate in a Benthamite Framework with Heterogeneous Degrees of Impatience," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(10), pages 1822-1826, October.
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    4. Christian Gollier & Miles S. Kimball, 2018. "New methods in the classical economics of uncertainty: comparing risks," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 43(1), pages 5-23, May.
    5. Jouini, Elyes & Napp, Clotilde, 2006. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset pricing in discrete time: An analysis of pessimism and doubt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1233-1260, July.
    6. Hansen, Simon Lysbjerg, 2015. "Cross-sectional asset pricing with heterogeneous preferences and beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 125-151.
    7. Alfranseder, Emanuel & zhang, Xiang, 2015. "The Effect of Pessimism and Doubt on the Equity Premium," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2015/5, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    8. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2012. "Behavioral biases and the representative agent," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 97-123, July.
    9. Weinbaum, David, 2009. "Investor heterogeneity, asset pricing and volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1379-1397, July.

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