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The (Home) Bias of European Central Bankers: New Evidence Based on Speeches

Author

Listed:
  • Hamza Bennani

    (UPN - Université Paris Nanterre)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch
Abstract
Speeches are an important vehicle for central bankers to convey individual views on the preferred policy stance. In this paper, we employ an automated text linguistic approach to create an indicator that measures the tone of the 1,618 speeches delivered by members of the Governing Council (GC) during the period 1999M1− 2014M4. We then relate this variable to euro-area and national macroeconomic forecasts. Our key findings are as follows. First, inflation and growth expectations have a positive and significant impact on the hawkishness of a speech. Second, different growth expectations across the euro area and different preferences significantly explain discrepancies across speakers. Third, the voiced preferences of presidents of the national central banks (NCB) largely coincide with the level of independence their central banks had at the time of the Maastricht Treaty. However, in general, there are not much differences between members of the Executive Board and the NCB presidents. Fourth, we find some evidence that central bankers adjust the gist of their speeches depending on whether they talk at home or abroad and before or after a GC meeting. Finally, differences in central banker preferences are the key source of variation in their speeches before the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2016. "The (Home) Bias of European Central Bankers: New Evidence Based on Speeches ," Post-Print hal-04206062, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04206062
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1210782
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04206062
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Central Bank; Governing Council; Monetary Policy; National Interests; Speeches;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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