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Firm-level political risk and dividend payout

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Farooq Ahmad

    (SKEMA Business School)

  • Saqib Aziz

    (ESC Rennes School of Business - ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business)

  • Rwan El-Khatib

    (Zayed University)

  • Oskar Kowalewski

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
We use a novel measure of firm-level political risk based on a textual search technique on firms' quarterly earnings conference transcripts to explain dividend payouts in publicly listed U.S. firms. We find a positive and significant effect of firm-level political risk on dividend payouts, particularly in uncertainties related to economics, institutions, technology, trade, and security. The effect is more pronounced in firms with better corporate governance, less analyst follow-up, and higher growth opportunities. These results support the signaling role of dividends rather than the role of agency theory in explaining dividend payouts when firms are associated with higher levels of political risk. We also find the effect to be prominent after controlling for an aggregate measure of economic policy uncertainty and in poor economic conditions and in major political event periods. We address endogeneity concerns by running placebo tests and conducting instrumental variable analysis and we alleviate self-selection bias by performing propensity score matching technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Farooq Ahmad & Saqib Aziz & Rwan El-Khatib & Oskar Kowalewski, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," Post-Print hal-04023055, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04023055
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102546
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    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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