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News-based sentiment: can it explain market performance before and after the Russia–Ukraine conflict?

Author

Listed:
  • Viet Hoang Le

    (SOURCE - SOUtenabilité et RésilienCE - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - IRD [Ile-de-France] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)

  • Hans Jörg von Mettenheim

    (IPAG Business School)

  • Stéphane Goutte

    (SOURCE - SOUtenabilité et RésilienCE - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - IRD [Ile-de-France] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)

  • Fei Liu

    (IPAG Business School)

Abstract
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the market response of the aerospace and defense industry and the airline industry to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia based on the sentiments from war-related news articles over the period from October 2021 to June 2022. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses the news article database of Global Database of Events, Languages and Tone (GDELT) to create a new set of variables that reflect the news sentiment regarding war and conflict. By investigating the newly created sentiment variables in combination with traditional event study methodology, the authors seek to find out whether sentiment indicators can be helpful to rationalize the evolution of the different stock markets before and after the conflict. Findings: The authors' results point out a significant negative impact of the war on the airline market and a positive impact on the defense market. The authors' study also introduces a new set of war-related news-based sentiment variables that is significant to explain the evolution of the two markets before and after the war. The relationships between this study's new set of variables and the performance of the two markets are also proven to be significantly impacted by the invasion. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first research to use the news sentiment related to the topic of war and conflict to explain the market movement of different industries during the Ukraine invasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Viet Hoang Le & Hans Jörg von Mettenheim & Stéphane Goutte & Fei Liu, 2023. "News-based sentiment: can it explain market performance before and after the Russia–Ukraine conflict?," Post-Print hal-04068670, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04068670
    DOI: 10.1108/JRF-06-2022-0168
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    Cited by:

    1. Simone Boccaletti & Paolo Maranzano & Caterina Morelli & Elisa Ossola, 2024. "ESG Performance and Stock Market Responses to Geopolitical Turmoil: evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War," Working Papers 544, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    2. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Yousaf, Imran & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Li, Yanshuang, 2024. "Economic sanctions sentiment and global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad & Mangafic, Jasmina, 2023. "Covid-19 vaccines and investment performance: Evidence from equity funds in European Union," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Bouri, Elie & Quinn, Barry & Sheenan, Lisa & Tang, Yayan, 2024. "Investigating extreme linkage topology in the aerospace and defence industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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