[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03622209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios through the lens of structural change

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Lefevre

    (AgroParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Thomas Le Gallic

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Panagiotis Fragkos

    (E3-Modelling)

  • Jean-François Mercure

    (University of Exeter, CAM - University of Cambridge [UK])

  • Yeliz Simsek

    (University of Exeter)

  • Leonidas Paroussos

    (E3-Modelling)

Abstract
This paper analyses structural change in the economy as a key but largely unexplored aspect of global socioeconomic and climate change mitigation scenarios. Structural change can actually drive energy and land use as much as economic growth and influence mitigation opportunities and barriers. Conversely, stringent climate policy is bound to induce specific structural and socioeconomic transformations that are still insufficiently understood. We introduce Multi-Sectoral Integrated Assessment Models as main tools to capture the key drivers of structural change and we conduct a multi-model study to assess main structural effectschanges of the sectoral composition and intensity of trade of global and regional economiesin a baseline and 2°C policy scenario by 2050. First, the range of baseline projections across models, for which we identify the main drivers, illustrates the uncertainty on future economic pathways-in emerging economies especially-and inform on plausible alternative futures with implications for energy use and emissions. Second, in all models, climate policy in the 2°C scenario imposes only a second-order impact on the economic structure at the macrosectoral level-agriculture, manufacturing and services-compared to changes modelled in the baseline. However, this hides more radical changes for individual industries-within the energy sector especially. The study, which adopts a top-down framing of global structural change, represents a starting point to kick-start a conversation and propose a new research agenda seeking to improve understanding of the structural change effects in socioeconomic and mitigation scenarios, and better inform policy assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Lefevre & Thomas Le Gallic & Panagiotis Fragkos & Jean-François Mercure & Yeliz Simsek & Leonidas Paroussos, 2022. "Global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios through the lens of structural change," Post-Print hal-03622209, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03622209
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102510
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03622209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03622209/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102510?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Siddiqui, Aaliyah & Ahmad, Shabbir & Jiao, Zhilun, 2023. "Financial development as a new determinant of energy diversification: The role of natural capital and structural changes in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Liao, Hua & Ye, Huiying, 2023. "Endogenous economic structure, climate change, and the optimal abatement path," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 417-429.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; Socio-economic pathways; Climate policy; Multi-sectoral macroeconomic modelling; Energy sector;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03622209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.