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Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: the challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms

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  • Salaheddine Soummane

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Frédéric Ghersi

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Julien Lefèvre

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
Highlights : - We calibrate a hybrid dynamic recursive CGE model of Saudi Arabia on original data - We acknowledge the Saudi specifics of currency peg and investment stability - We explore 3 scenarios of international and domestic energy prices - Low global prices affect Saudi GDP little but lower national and public savings - Reformed domestic prices restore activity but not national or public savings Abstract : We analyse the mid-term macroeconomic challenge to Saudi Arabia of a global low-carbon transition reducing oil revenues, versus the opportunity of national energy reforms. We calibrate a compact, dynamic recursive model of Saudi Arabia on original energy-economy data to explore scenarios. We first assess the consequences of oil prices declining from their levels in the New Policies Scenario (NPS) of the IEA, to their levels in its Sustainable

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  • Salaheddine Soummane & Frédéric Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre, 2019. "Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: the challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms," Post-Print hal-02924714, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02924714
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.062
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://enpc.hal.science/hal-02924714
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    Cited by:

    1. Li-Chen Sim, 2023. "Renewable Energy and Governance Resilience in the Gulf," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Salaheddine Soummane & Frédéric Ghersi & Franck Lecocq, 2022. "Structural Transformation Options of the Saudi Economy Under Constraint of Depressed World Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(3), pages 185-204, May.
    3. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    4. Blazquez, Jorge & Galeotti, Marzio & Manzano, Baltasar & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar, 2021. "Effects of Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms: Insights from a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 145-169.
    5. Shehabi, Manal, 2022. "Modeling long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price declines on Gulf oil economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Xin Su & Frédéric Ghersi & Fei Teng & Gaëlle Le Treut & Meicong Liang, 2022. "The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking," Post-Print hal-03897206, HAL.
    7. Nadia Yusuf & Vivian Nasrulddin, 2024. "Significance of International Trade and National GDP as Two Integral Components of Sustainable Economic Development in Saudi Arabia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 2298-2317, March.
    8. Le Treut, Gaëlle & Lefèvre, Julien & Lallana, Francisco & Bravo, Gonzalo, 2021. "The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," CIRED Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    10. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, 2022. "Nationalization of the private sector labor force, quotas, matching and public jobs, an illustration with Saudi Arabia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 98-117.
    11. Xin Su & Frédéric Ghersi & Fei Teng & Gaëlle Treut & Meicong Liang, 2022. "The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-37, January.
    12. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2022. "Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model," Post-Print hal-03500916, HAL.
    13. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Almutairi, Hossa & Aljarboua, Abdullah & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar & Murphy, Frederic, 2023. "Hard-linking a top-down economic model with a bottom-up energy system for an oil-exporting country with price controls," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

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    Low-carbon transition; Administered energy prices; Hybrid energy-economy modelling; Saudi Arabia;
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