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Volatility Spillovers Between Oil Prices And Stock Returns: A Focus On Frontier Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mathieu Gomes

    (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020])

  • Anissa Chaibi
Abstract
Frontier markets are increasingly sought by investors in search of higher returns and low correlation with traditional assets. As such, it is important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism across these markets in order to make better portfolio allocation decisions. This paper employs a bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model to simultaneously estimate the mean and conditional variance between equity stock markets (twenty-one national frontier stock indices and two broad indices-the MSCI Frontier Markets and the MSCI World) and oil prices. We examine weekly returns from February 8, 2008 to February 1, 2013 and find significant transmission of shocks and volatility between oil prices and some of the examined markets. Moreover, this spillover effect is sometimes bidirectional.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Gomes & Anissa Chaibi, 2014. "Volatility Spillovers Between Oil Prices And Stock Returns: A Focus On Frontier Markets," Post-Print hal-02314397, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02314397
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02314397
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Escribano, Ana & Koczar, Monika W. & Jareño, Francisco & Esparcia, Carlos, 2023. "Shock transmission between crude oil prices and stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & Nancy Muller Durán & José Antonio Climent Hernández, 2021. "Spillovers entre los principales Mercados Accionarios de Latinoamérica, Estados Unidos y el Mercado Petrolero," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, Enero - M.
    4. Fantazzini, Dean, 2016. "The oil price crash in 2014/15: Was there a (negative) financial bubble?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 383-396.
    5. Khairulla Massadikov, 2021. "Volatility Spillovers between Oil Prices and Stock Returns in Developing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 121-126.
    6. Sarwar, Suleman & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Waheed, Rida & Dastgerdi, Hamidreza Ghorbani, 2019. "Volatility spillovers and hedging: Evidence from Asian oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 479-488.
    7. Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tingqiu, Cao, 2020. "Analyzing volatility spillovers between oil market and Asian stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Sarwar, Suleman & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Anwar, Awais & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "The importance of oil assets for portfolio optimization: The analysis of firm level stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 217-234.
    9. Mst. Shapna Akter & Hossain Shahriar & Reaz Chowdhury & M. R. C. Mahdy, 2022. "Forecasting the Risk Factor of Frontier Markets: A Novel Stacking Ensemble of Neural Network Approach," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, August.
    10. Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
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    12. Rodrigo A. Morales Fernández Rafaelly & Roberto J. Santillán-Salgado, 2021. "Oil price effect on sectoral stock returns: A conditional covariance and correlation approach for Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, Enero - M.
    13. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2017. "Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 165-173.
    14. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    15. Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & Nancy Muller Durán & José Antonio Climent Hernández, 2021. "Spillovers entre los principales Mercados Accionarios de Latinoamérica, Estados Unidos y el Mercado Petrolero," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, Enero - M.
    16. Abdullah Alqahtani, 2019. "Do Global Financial, Oil and Gold Volatility Shocks Affect the GCC Stock Markets?," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 157-175, November.
    17. Theplib, Krit & Sethapramote, Yuthana & Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "Shock and Volatility Spillovers between Crude Oil Price and Stock Returns: Evidence for Thailand," MPRA Paper 98094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Seuk Wai Phoong & Masnun Al Mahi & Seuk Yen Phoong, 2023. "A Markov Switching Approach in Assessing Oil Price and Stock Market Nexus in the Last Decade: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, February.
    19. Burhan F. Yavas & Lidija Dedi & Tihana Škrinjarić, 2022. "Did equity returns and volatilities change after the 2016 Trump election victory?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1291-1308, January.

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