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Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Hélène Benveniste

    (IPSL (FR_636) - Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Olivier Boucher

    (LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Hervé Le Treut

    (UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6)

  • Patrick Criqui

    (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA [2016-2019] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019])

Abstract
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) before and after the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21), summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025-2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for NDCs format, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8 to 66.5 Gt CO2eq yr-1 emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010-2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming "climate regime": a clearer framework regarding future NDCs' design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Hélène Benveniste & Olivier Boucher & Céline Guivarch & Hervé Le Treut & Patrick Criqui, 2018. "Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions," Post-Print hal-01662799, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01662799
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa0b9
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01662799v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modeling of energy transformation pathways under current policies, NDCs and enhanced NDCs to achieve 2-degree target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 549-557.
    2. Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Exploring the energy system impacts of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contributions and low-carbon transition to mid-century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Kim, Hansung & Lee, Hwarang & Koo, Yoonmo & Choi, Dong Gu, 2020. "Comparative analysis of iterative approaches for incorporating learning-by-doing into the energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Vijay Kumar Jain & Anu Gupta & Hemraj Verma, 2024. "Goodbye materialism: exploring antecedents of minimalism and its impact on millennials well-being," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 19779-19805, August.
    5. Arthur Bragança & Avery Simon Cohn, 2019. "Predicting Intensification on the Brazilian Agricultural Frontier: Combining Evidence from Lab-In-The-Field Experiments and Household Surveys," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Ayla Alkan & Ayla Oğuş Binatlı & Çağaçan Değer, 2018. "Achieving Turkey’s INDC Target: Assessments of NCCAP and INDC Documents and Proposing Conceivable Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-27, May.
    7. Daniele Malerba, 2022. "The Effects of Social Protection and Social Cohesion on the Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: What Do We (Not) Know in the Context of Low- and Middle-Income Countries?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1358-1382, June.
    8. Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A., 2019. "Business-as-usual redefined: Energy systems under climate-damaged economies warrant review of nationally determined contributions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 862-868.
    9. Daniel Puig & Fatemeh Bakhtiari, 2019. "Incorporating uncertainty in national-level climate change-mitigation policy: possible elements for a research agenda," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 86-89, March.

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