[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00709557.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Over the Moon or Sick as a Parrot? The Effects of Football Results on a Club's Share Price

Author

Listed:
  • Adrian Bell
  • Chris Brooks

    (Icma Centre - UOR - University of Reading)

  • David Matthews
  • Charles Sutcliffe
Abstract
This paper considers the impact of match results on the stock returns of English football clubs. We propose that the magnitude of the response to a given result depends on the importance of the game, which is measured in two ways. First, we consider the extent to which the clubs are close rivals vying for similar league positions, as winning such games is particularly significant. Second, we argue that each individual game becomes more important for those clubs likely to be promoted or relegated as the season draws to a close, since a given match will have increasing information content concerning the final league position of the club. Using a fairly large panel comprising data for 19 clubs, we find some support for the notion that stock prices are more affected by the results of important matches than matches of lesser importance. We also observe that the difference between the number of points the club secures from a given match, and the number it was expected to secure, affects its stock price, as does the number of goals that the club under question scores in the match, relative to its competitor.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Bell & Chris Brooks & David Matthews & Charles Sutcliffe, 2011. "Over the Moon or Sick as a Parrot? The Effects of Football Results on a Club's Share Price," Post-Print hal-00709557, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00709557
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.577017
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00709557
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-00709557/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2011.577017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Falk, Armin & Dohmen, Thomas J & Sunde, Uwe & Huffman, David, 2006. "Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Stephen Morrow, 1999. "The New Business of Football," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-37174-3, March.
    3. Bert Scholtens & Wijtze Peenstra, 2009. "Scoring on the stock exchange? The effect of football matches on stock market returns: an event study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(25), pages 3231-3237.
    4. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
    5. Palomino, F.A. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2005. "Stock Price Reactions to Short-Lived Public Information : The Case of Betting Odds," Other publications TiSEM 1deb12a0-54a3-47f7-9626-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Bruinshoofd, Allard & ter Weel, Bas, 2003. "Manager to go? Performance dips reconsidered with evidence from Dutch football," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 233-246, July.
    7. Barajas, Angel & Fernández-Jardón, Carlos & Crolley, Liz, 2005. "Does sports performance influence revenues and economic results in Spanish football?," MPRA Paper 3234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Eli Amir & Gilad Livne, 2005. "Accounting, Valuation and Duration of Football Player Contracts," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3‐4), pages 549-586, April.
    9. Bernd Frick & Robert Simmons, 2008. "The impact of managerial quality on organizational performance: evidence from German soccer," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 593-600.
    10. Palomino, Frederic & Renneboog, Luc & Zhang, Chendi, 2009. "Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 368-387, June.
    11. Ramzi Benkraiem & Waël Louhichi & Frédéric Le Roy, 2010. "Sporting Performances and the Volatility of Listed English Football Clubs," Post-Print halshs-00601473, HAL.
    12. Ramzi Benkraiem & Waël Louhichi & Pierre Marques, 2009. "Market reaction to sporting results The case of European listed football clubs," Post-Print halshs-00428516, HAL.
    13. I. Graham & H. Stott, 2008. "Predicting bookmaker odds and efficiency for UK football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 99-109.
    14. Matt Pinnuck & Brad Potter, 2006. "Impact of on‐field football success on the off‐field financial performance of AFL football clubs," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(3), pages 499-517, September.
    15. J. K. Ashton & B. Gerrard & R. Hudson, 2003. "Economic impact of national sporting success: evidence from the London stock exchange," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 783-785.
    16. Georg Stadtmann, 2006. "Frequent News and Pure Signals: The Case of a Publicly Traded Football Club," IASE Conference Papers 0625, International Association of Sports Economists.
    17. Berument, Hakan & Yucel, Eray M., 2005. "Long live Fenerbahce: The production boosting effects of football," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 842-861, December.
    18. Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David B. & Sunde, Uwe, 2006. "Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Economic Perceptions and Expectations: The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 2275, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
    20. Renneboog, L.D.R. & Vanbrabant, P., 2000. "Share Price Reactions to Sporty Performances of Soccer Clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange and the AIM," Discussion Paper 2000-19, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    21. Dixon, Mark J. & Pope, Peter F., 2004. "The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 697-711.
    22. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2010. "Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 535-553, April.
    23. Vaughan Williams,Leighton (ed.), 2005. "Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521816038, September.
    24. Richard Zuber & Patrick Yiu & Reinhold Lamb & John Gandar, 2005. "Investor-fans? An examination of the performance of publicly traded English Premier League teams," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 305-313.
    25. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2000. "The Favourite‐Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football betting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 25-36, February.
    26. Georg Stadtmann, 2006. "Frequent News And Pure Signals: The Case Of A Publicly Traded Football Club," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 485-504, September.
    27. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    28. Georg Stadtmann, 2006. "Frequent News and Pure Signals: The Case of a Publicly Traded Football Club," Working Papers 0603, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    29. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
    30. Dirk G. Baur and Conor McKeating, 2009. "The Benefits of Financial Markets: A Case Study of European Football Clubs," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp283, IIIS.
    31. Braun, Sebastian & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2008. "Against All Odds? – National Sentiment and Wagering on European Football," Ruhr Economic Papers 42, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    32. Hakan Berument & Esin Gšzpinar & Basak Ceylan, 2006. "Performance of Soccer on the Stock Market:Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0606, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    33. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
    34. Audas, Rick & Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2002. "The impact of managerial change on team performance in professional sports," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 633-650.
    35. ter Weel, Bas, 2006. "Does Manager Turnover Improve Firm Performance? New Evidence Using Information from Dutch Soccer, 1986-2004," IZA Discussion Papers 2483, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    36. de Dios Tena, Juan & Forrest, David, 2007. "Within-season dismissal of football coaches: Statistical analysis of causes and consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 362-373, August.
    37. Bruno Deschamps & Olivier Gergaud, 2007. "Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 61-73, February.
    38. R. H. Koning, 2003. "An econometric evaluation of the effect of firing a coach on team performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 555-564.
    39. Tim Kuypers, 2000. "Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(11), pages 1353-1363.
    40. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Supino, Enrico & Tenucci, Andrea & Di Nanna, Gianluca, 2024. "Sports failures and stock returns between rationality and emotionality: Evidence from the UEFA Champions League," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    2. Massimiliano Castellani & Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Roberto Patuelli, 2015. "Abnormal Returns of Soccer Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(7), pages 735-759, October.
    3. Berna KIRKULAK ULUDAG & Secil Sigali, 2016. "Futbol Mac Sonuclarinin 4 Buyuklerin Hisse Senedi Getirilerine Etkisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(4), pages 575-585.
    4. Robert Ślepaczuk & Igor Wabik, 2020. "The impact of the results of football matches on the stock prices of soccer clubs," Working Papers 2020-35, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    5. Pedro Godinho & Pedro Cerqueira, 2018. "The Impact of Expectations, Match Importance, and Results in the Stock Prices of European Football Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 230-278, February.
    6. Teodor Dima, 2015. "Manchester United’S Ipo (2012)," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 65-71, February.
    7. Pedro Godinho & Pedro Cerqueira, 2018. "The Impact of Expectations, Match Importance, and Results in the Stock Prices of European Football Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 230-278, February.
    8. Ferreira, Paulo & Loures, Luís & Nunes, José Rato & Dionísio, Andreia, 2017. "The behaviour of share returns of football clubs: An econophysics approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 472(C), pages 136-144.
    9. Barry Reilly, 2015. "The Demand for League of Ireland Football," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 485-509.
    10. Kenneth Linna & Evan Moore & Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2014. "The Effects of the Clock and Kickoff Rule Changes on Actual and Market-Based Expected Scoring in NCAA Football," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14, April.
    11. Ender Demir & Hakan Danis, 2011. "The Effect of Performance of Soccer Clubs on Their Stock Prices: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 58-70, September.
    12. Oguz Ersan & Ender Demir, 2017. "New Season New Hopes: Off-Season Optimism," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 36-49.
    13. Lennart Ante & Benjamin Schellinger & Ender Demir, 2024. "The impact of football games and sporting performance on intra-day fan token returns," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 94(5), pages 813-850, July.
    14. Ender Demir & Ugo Rigoni, 2017. "You Lose, I Feel Better," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 58-76, January.
    15. Hlasny, V. & Kolaric, S., 2015. "Catch Me If You Can - Referee–Team Relationships and Disciplinary Cautions in Football," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 74994, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    16. Altuğ Tanaltay & Amirreza Safari Langroudi & Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei & Nihat Kasap, 2021. "Can Social Media Predict Soccer Clubs’ Stock Prices? The Case of Turkish Teams and Twitter," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    17. Giampiero Maci & Vincenzo Pacelli & Elisabetta D'Apolito, 2021. "Societ〠Di Calcio Europee Quotate E Mercati Finanziari: Un'Analisi Empirica Sulle Determinanti Dei Corsi Azionari," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 17(2), pages 69-90, novembre.
    18. Vladimir Hlasny & Sascha Kolaric, 2017. "Catch Me If You Can," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(6), pages 560-591, August.
    19. Alper Veli ÇAM, 2015. "The Effects of Sporting Success on Stock Returns: An Application in Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 147-154, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jerome Geyer-Klingeberg & Markus Hang & Matthias Walter & Andreas Rathgeber, 2018. "Do stock markets react to soccer games? A meta-regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(19), pages 2171-2189, April.
    2. Andrea Schertler & Jarmo Beurden, 2023. "How relative competitive strength moderates stock price responses after European soccer tournaments," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(8), pages 1385-1414, October.
    3. Fung, Ka Wai Terence & Demir, Ender & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Chan, Kwok Ho, 2013. "An Examination of Sports Event Sentiment: Microeconomic Evidence from Borsa Istanbul," MPRA Paper 52874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. David Winkelmann & Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2024. "Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 54-97, January.
    5. Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken, 2018. "A rational asymmetric reaction to news: evidence from English football clubs," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 347-374, August.
    6. Antonio Samagaio & Eduardo Couto & Jorge Caiado, 2009. "Sporting, financial and stock market performance in English football: an empirical analysis of structural relationships," CEMAPRE Working Papers 0906, Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics (CEMAPRE), School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.
    7. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    8. Roberto Gásquez & Vicente Royuela, 2014. "Is Football an Indicator of Development at the International Level?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 827-848, July.
    9. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ender Demir & Hakan Danis, 2011. "The Effect of Performance of Soccer Clubs on Their Stock Prices: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 58-70, September.
    11. Fung, Ka Wai Terence & Demir, Ender & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Chan, Kwok Ho, 2015. "Reexamining sports-sentiment hypothesis: Microeconomic evidences from Borsa Istanbul," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 337-355.
    12. David Alaminos & Ignacio Esteban & M. Belén Salas, 2023. "Neural networks for estimating Macro Asset Pricing model in football clubs," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 57-75, April.
    13. Ender Demir & Ugo Rigoni, 2017. "You Lose, I Feel Better," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 58-76, January.
    14. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2015. "Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues," MPRA Paper 66414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys, 2008. "The Effect of On-Field Success on Stock Prices: Evidence from Nippon Professional Baseball," Working Papers 0805, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    16. Alper Veli ÇAM, 2015. "The Effects of Sporting Success on Stock Returns: An Application in Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 147-154, September.
    17. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca, 2019. "Efficiency of online football betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 712-721.
    18. Robert Ślepaczuk & Igor Wabik, 2020. "The impact of the results of football matches on the stock prices of soccer clubs," Working Papers 2020-35, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    19. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2019. "Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer leagues," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 239-246.
    20. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2020. "Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks: The Case of Ghost Games during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 8526, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Sciences & Humanities;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00709557. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.