[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-00115622.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Banks' procyclicality behavior: does provisioning matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Bouvatier

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Laetitia Lepetit

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

Abstract
A panel of 186 European banks is used for the period 1992-2004 to determine if banking behaviors induced by the capital adequacy constraint and the provisioning system, amplify credit fluctuations. Our finding is consistent with the bank capital channel hypothesis, which means that poorly capitalized banks are constrained to expand credit. We also find that loan loss provisions (LLP) made in order to cover identified credit losses (non discretionary LLP) amplify credit fluctuations. Indeed, non discretionary LLP evolve cyclically. This leads to a misevaluation of expected credit risk which affect banks' incentives to grant new loans since lending costs are misstated. By contrast, LLP use for management objectives (discretionary LLP) do not affect credit fluctuations. The findings of our research are consistent with the call for the implementation of dynamic provisioning in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks' procyclicality behavior: does provisioning matter?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00115622, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00115622
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00115622
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00115622/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    2. Chami, Ralph & Cosimano, Thomas F., 2010. "Monetary policy with a touch of Basel," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 161-175, May.
    3. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    5. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    6. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    7. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Xavier Freixas & Universitat Pompeu Fabra and CEPR, 2004. "Books vs. Fair Value Accounting in Banking, and Intertemporal Smoothing," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    9. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    10. Hancock, Diana & Wilcox, James A., 1998. "The "credit crunch" and the availability of credit to small business," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 983-1014, August.
    11. Barth, Mary E. & Landsman, Wayne R. & Wahlen, James M., 1995. "Fair value accounting: Effects on banks' earnings volatility, regulatory capital, and value of contractual cash flows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 577-605, June.
    12. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    13. Kishan, Ruby P & Opiela, Timothy P, 2000. "Bank Size, Bank Capital, and the Bank Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 121-141, February.
    14. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S & Tootell, Geoffrey M B, 2003. "Identifying the Macroeconomic Effect of Loan Supply Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 931-946, December.
    15. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    16. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
    17. Lea Zicchino, 2006. "A Model Of Bank Capital, Lending And The Macroeconomy: Basel I Versus Basel Ii," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 50-77, September.
    18. Altunbas, Yener & Fazylov, Otabek & Molyneux, Philip, 2002. "Evidence on the bank lending channel in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2093-2110, November.
    19. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 679-692, June.
    20. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    21. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2005. "Inside the bank lending channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1737-1759, October.
    22. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Craig Furfine, 2001. "Bank Portfolio Allocation: The Impact of Capital Requirements, Regulatory Monitoring, and Economic Conditions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 33-56, September.
    24. Laurent Clerc & Françoise Drumetz & Olivier Jaudoin, 2001. "To what extent are prudential and accounting arrangements pro- or countercyclical with respect to overall financial conditions?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 197-210, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    26. Enria, Andrea & Cappiello, Lorenzo & Dierick, Frank & Sergio, Grittini & Haralambous, Andrew & Maddaloni, Angela & Molitor, Philippe & Pires, Fatima & Poloni, Paolo, 2004. "Fair value accounting and financial stability," Occasional Paper Series 13, European Central Bank.
    27. Kashyap, Anil K. & Mojon, Benoît & Terlizzese, Daniele & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
    28. Beaver, William H. & Engel, Ellen E., 1996. "Discretionary behavior with respect to allowances for loan losses and the behavior of security prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 177-206, October.
    29. Brinkmann, Emile J & Horvitz, Paul M, 1995. "Risk-Based Capital Standards and the Credit Crunch," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 848-863, August.
    30. Cavallo, Michele & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Do Banks provision for bad loans in good times? empirical evidence and policy implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2619, The World Bank.
    31. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 151-195, June.
    32. Lobo, Gerald J & Yang, Dong-Hoon, 2001. "Bank Managers' Heterogeneous Decisions on Discretionary Loan Loss Provisions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 223-250, May.
    33. Asea, Patrick K. & Blomberg, Brock, 1998. "Lending cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 89-128.
    34. Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
    35. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    36. Jacob A. Bikker, 2004. "Competition and Efficiency in a Unified European Banking Market," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2830.
    37. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, September.
    38. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Dahl, Drew, 2003. "Discretionary accounting and the behavior of Japanese banks under financial duress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1219-1243, July.
    39. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "What Do a Million Banks Have to Say About the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 6056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Guttentag, Jack & Herring, Richard, 1984. "Credit Rationing and Financial Disorder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1359-1382, December.
    41. Michael Ehrmann & Leonardo Gambacorta & Jorge Mart�nez-Pag�s & Patrick Sevestre & Andreas Worms, 2001. "Fynancial Systems and the Role of Banks in Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 432, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    42. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    43. Markus Arpa & Irene Giulini & Andreas Ittner & Franz Pauer, 2001. "The influence of macroeconomic developments on Austrian banks: implications for banking supervision," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 91-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    44. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    45. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Loan Review, Provisioning, and Macroeconomic Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2000/195, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Andrea Enria & Lorenzo Cappiello & Frank Dierick & Sergio Grittini & Andrew Haralambous & Angela Maddaloni & Philippe Molitor & Fatima Pires & Paolo Poloni, 2004. "Fair value accounting and financial stability," Occasional Paper Series 13, European Central Bank.
    47. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hong Liu & Phil Molyneux & John O. S. Wilson, 2013. "Competition And Stability In European Banking: A Regional Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(2), pages 176-201, March.
    2. Eliana Balla & Andrew McKenna, 2009. "Dynamic provisioning: a countercyclical tool for loan loss reserves," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Fall), pages 383-418.
    3. José Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2010. "Addressing the pro-cyclicality of capital requirements with a dynamic loan loss provision system," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU10-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Frank Packer & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Loan loss provisioning practices of Asian banks," BIS Working Papers 375, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. John Bonin & Marko Kosak, 2013. "Loan/Loss Provisioning in Emerging Europe: Precautionary or Pro-Cyclical?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2013-010, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    6. Müller, Oliver & Uhde, André, 2013. "Cross-border bank lending: Empirical evidence on new determinants from OECD banking markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 136-162.
    7. Sarawan Angklomkliew & Jason George & Frank Packer, 2009. "Issues and developments in loan loss provisioning: the case of Asia," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    8. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2012. "Provisioning rules and bank lending: A theoretical model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-31.
    9. Jan FRAIT & Zlatuše KOMÁRKOVÁ, 2013. "Loan Loss Provisioning in Selected European Banking Sectors: Do Banks Really Behave in a Procyclical Way?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(4), pages 308-326, August.
    10. Bethlendi, András, 2007. "A hazai bankok hitelezésiveszteség-elszámolásának vizsgálata [Examination of loan-loss allowance practices by Hungarian banks]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 67-93.
    11. Ali, Ashraf & M. Kabir, Hassan & Syed Abul, Basher, 2015. "Loan Loss Provisioning in OIC Countries: Evidence from Conventional vs. Islamic Banks," MPRA Paper 61687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    13. Ignacio Ferrero & Alejo José G. Sison, 2012. "A Survey on Virtue in Business and Management (1980-2011)," Faculty Working Papers 06/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    14. Eliana Balla & Morgan J. Rose, 2011. "Loan loss reserves, accounting constraints, and bank ownership structure," Working Paper 11-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    15. Craigwell, Roland C & Elliott, Wayne A, 2011. "Loan loss provisioning in the commercial banking system of Barbados: practices and determinants," MPRA Paper 33426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Adela Socol, 2011. "Loan Losses Provisioning Processes In Romanian Banks During January 2007 - February 2011," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(13), pages 1-11.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.
    2. Matteo Alessi & Stefano Di Colli & Juan Sergio Lopez, 2014. "Loan Loss Provisioning and Relationship Banking in Italy: Practices and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Entrepreneurial and Organizational Diversity, European Research Institute on Cooperative and Social Enterprises, vol. 3(1), pages 111-129, June.
    3. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2012. "Provisioning rules and bank lending: A theoretical model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-31.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Matteo Alessi & Stefano Di Colli & Juan Sergio Lopez, 2015. "Loan Loss Provision: Some Empirical Evidence for Italian Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series 5253, CESifo.
    5. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Amine Tarazi & Agusman Agusman & Gary S. Monroe & Dominic Gasbarro, 2016. "Loan Loss Provisions and Lending Behavior of Banks: Do Information Sharing and Borrower Legal Rights Matter?," Working Papers hal-01316717, HAL.
    6. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    7. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Daniilidis, Ioannis & Delis, Manthos D., 2014. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-83.
    8. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.
    9. Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Wan Ngah, Wan Azman Saini & Abdul Karim, Bakri, 2010. "Bank lending channel of monetary policy: dynamic panel data evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 26157, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Vincent Bouvatier & Lætitia Lepetit, 2011. "Canal des provisions bancaires et cyclicité du marché du crédit," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(1), pages 67-85.
    11. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2012. "Effects of Loan Loss Provisions on Growth in Bank Lending: Some International Comparisons," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 91-116.
    12. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Nuutilainen, Riikka & Weill, Laurent, 2016. "Reserve requirements and the bank lending channel in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 37-50.
    13. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    14. Chmielewski, Tomasz, 2005. "Bank risks, risk preferences and lending," MPRA Paper 5131, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jan 2006.
    15. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2009. "Securitisation and the bank lending channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 996-1009, November.
    16. Burgstaller Johann, 2010. "Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission in Austria," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(2), pages 163-185, April.
    17. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    18. Halvorsen, Jørn I. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2016. "The bank-lending channel empirically revisited," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 95-105.
    19. Guillermo Peña, 2017. "Money, Lending and Banking Crises," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(4), pages 444-458, December.
    20. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Sigid Eko Pramono & Amine Tarazi, 2016. "The procyclicality of loan loss provisions in Islamic banks: Do managerial discretions matter?," Working Papers hal-01281151, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital requirement; loan loss provisions; Bank lending; Crédit; provisions; capital réglementaire;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00115622. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.