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The Memory of Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Wenger, Kai
  • Leschinski, Christian
  • Sibbertsen, Philipp
Abstract
The focus of the volatility literature on forecasting and the predominance of the conceptually simpler HAR model over long memory stochastic volatility models has led to the fact that the actual degree of memory estimates has rarely been considered. Estimates in the literature range roughly between 0.4 and 0.6 - that is from the higher stationary to the lower non-stationary region. This difference, however, has important practical implications - such as the existence or non-existence of the fourth moment of the return distribution. Inference on the memory order is complicated by the presence of measurement error in realized volatility and the potential of spurious long memory. In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the memory in variances of international stock indices and exchange rates. On the one hand, we find that the variance of exchange rates is subject to spurious long memory and the true memory parameter is in the higher stationary range. Stock index variances, on the other hand, are free of low frequency contaminations and the memory is in the lower non-stationary range. These results are obtained using state of the art local Whittle methods that allow consistent estimation in presence of perturbations or low frequency contaminations.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenger, Kai & Leschinski, Christian & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2017. "The Memory of Volatility," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-601, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-601
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    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-601.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Long Memory in Realized Volatility
      by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations on 2017-10-07 18:07:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2017. "The Long Memory of Equity Volatility: International Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-614, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    2. Marie Busch & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2018. "An Overview of Modified Semiparametric Memory Estimation Methods," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Janis Becker & Christian Leschinski, 2021. "Estimating the volatility of asset pricing factors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 269-278, March.
    4. Hiroyuki Kawakatsu, 2021. "Information in daily data volatility measurements," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1642-1656, April.
    5. Theoplasti Kolaiti & Mwasi Mboya & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2020. "Volatility Transmission across Financial Markets: A Semiparametric Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, July.
    6. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Realized Volatility; Long Memory; Perturbation; Spurious Long Memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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