[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ham/qmwops/20504.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Just how Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Funke
  • Jörg Rahn
Abstract
Given that the value of China´s currency has been hot topic recently, this paper explores the equilibrium levels of China´s real and nominal exchange rates. Employing a Johansen cointegration framework, we focus on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER) models. Our results suggest that, while the renminbi is somewhat undervalued against the dollar, the misalignment is not nearly as exaggerated as many popular claims.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just how Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20504, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://gulliver.econ.uni-hamburg.de/IWWT/homepage/qmwps/qm405.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
    2. Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    3. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    4. Yongzheng Yang, 2003. "China'S Integration Into the World Economy: Implications for Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/245, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
    8. Li Lian Ong, 2003. "The Big Mac Index," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-51241-2, October.
    9. Detken, Carsten & Henry, Jérôme & Smets, Frank & Dieppe, Alistair & Marin, Carmen, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 160, European Central Bank.
    10. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    11. Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia–Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 20-43, February.
    12. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    13. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    14. Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
    15. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    16. Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 1996. "For here or to go? Purchasing power parity and the Big Mac," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(Jan), pages 3-22.
    17. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, April.
    18. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John, 1991. "The predictability of real exchange rate changes in the short and long run," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, April.
    19. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    22. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-481, November.
    23. Francisco Maeso–Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December.
    24. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Robert E. Cumby, 1996. "Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity?," NBER Working Papers 5675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Chou, W. L. & Shih, Y. C., 1998. "The Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Chinese Renminbi," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 165-174, March.
    27. Ong, Li Lian, 1997. "Burgernomics: the economics of the Big Mac standard," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 865-878, December.
    28. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    29. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-94, March.
    30. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Choosing an exchange rate regime during economic transition: The case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 203-226.
    31. Michael Pippenger & Gregory Goering, 2000. "Additional results on the power of unit root and cointegration tests under threshold processes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(10), pages 641-644.
    32. Mr. Marc G Quintyn & Mr. Bernard J Laurens & Mr. Hassanali Mehran & Mr. Tom Nordman, 1996. "Monetary and Exchange System Reforms in China: An Experiment in Gradualism," IMF Occasional Papers 1996/006, International Monetary Fund.
    33. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The Micro-foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0306, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    34. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    35. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 465-489, April.
    3. Michael Funke & Jorg Rahn, 2004. "By How Much Is The Chinese Renminbi Undervalued?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 40, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilateral equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Jörg Rahn, 2004. "Bilaterial equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," Macroeconomics 0401010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Joanna Beza-Bojanowska, 2009. "The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate," NBP Working Papers 55, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    10. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2007. "Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU Members," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 307-326, July.
    11. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    12. Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilateral equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Jinzhao Chen, 2009. "Beyond Cheap Talks: Assessing the Undervaluation of the Chinese Currency Between 1994 and 2007," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 47-82.
    14. Rimgailaite, Ramune, 2012. "Exchange rate modelling for Lithuania and Switzerland," MPRA Paper 43451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long–run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December.
    16. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    18. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.
    19. Marit Hinnosaar & Hannes Kaadu & Lenno Uuskula, 2005. "Estimating the equilibrium exchange rate of the Estonian kroon," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-05, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    22. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models," Working Papers 2010_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    23. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
    24. Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, 2009. "Behavioral and Permanent Zloty/Euro Equilibrium," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 35-55, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imhamde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.