[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/guc/wpaper/52.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Richter

    (Faculty of Managemennt Technology, German University in Cairo)

  • Sara El Asy

    (Faculty of Management Technology, German University in Cairo)

Abstract
The relationship between public debt and economic growth has been crucial in economics and economic development not least since the financial crisis in 2007. The problem arises when debt reduces economic growth. Thus, the focus of this paper is to investigate the relationship between public debt and economic growth. In particular, we determine the debt threshold that affects this relationship. We find that there is no single debt threshold valid for all countries and in turn that each country possesses its own country specifics, which affect its economic growth. We also find that debt is not always harmful to economic growth. Last but not least, we compare recent debt levels with the threshold and average debt levels. We also find that exceeding a threshold does not necessarily result in immediate default. This holds in particular for Western European countries where debt levels exceed threshold levels by more than for developing economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Richter & Sara El Asy, 2019. "Is Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth," Working Papers 52, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:guc:wpaper:52
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://mgt.guc.edu.eg/wpapers/052Richter_2019.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2019
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    2. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    4. Cohen, Daniel, 1997. "Growth and External Debt: A New Perspective on the African and Latin American Tragedies," CEPR Discussion Papers 1753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-388, May.
    6. Caner, Mehmet & Grennes,Thomas & Koehler-Geib, Fritzi, 2010. "Finding the tipping point -- when sovereign debt turns bad," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5391, The World Bank.
    7. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    8. Maria do Rosario CORREIA & Christian GOKUS & Andrew Hughes HALLETT & Christian R. RICHTER, 2016. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Determinants of the Greek Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 350-376, June.
    9. David J. Smyth & Yu Hsing, 1995. "In Search Of An Optimal Debt Ratio For Economic Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(4), pages 51-59, October.
    10. Yang, Lixiong & Su, Jen-Je, 2018. "Debt and growth: Is there a constant tipping point?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 133-143.
    11. Bruce E. Hansen, 2017. "Regression Kink With an Unknown Threshold," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 228-240, April.
    12. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Debt on Economic Growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 471-484, September.
    13. Yolcu Karadam, Duygu, 2018. "An investigation of nonlinear effects of debt on growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blessy Augustine & O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi, 2021. "Public Debt - Economic Growth: Evidence of a Non-linear Relationship," BASE University Working Papers 11/2021, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    2. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    3. Hidalgo, Javier & Lee, Jungyoon & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2019. "Robust inference for threshold regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 291-309.
    4. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Lau, Evan, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-113.
    5. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    6. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    7. Lixiong Yang, 2023. "Variable selection in threshold model with a covariate-dependent threshold," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 189-202, July.
    8. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    9. Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud & Jan M. Podivinsky, 2015. "Federal government debt and economic growth: Evidence from Malaysia," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 15(3), pages 253-256, July.
    10. Augustine, Blessy & Rafi, O.P.C. Muhammed, 2023. "Public debt - economic growth nexus in emerging and developing economies: Exploring nonlinearity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
    12. Walid BENAYED & Foued Badr GABSI & Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2015. "Threshold Effect of Public Debt on Domestic Investment: Evidence from Selected African Countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 189-198, Winter.
    13. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    14. Atul A. DAR & Sal AMIRKHALKHALI, 2014. "On The Impact Of Public Debt On Economic Growth," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 21-32.
    15. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2019. "“Re-examining the debt-growth nexus: A grouped fixed-effect approach”," IREA Working Papers 201911, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2019.
    16. Xu, Jianguo & Zhang, Xun, 2014. "China's sovereign debt: A balance-sheet perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 55-73.
    17. Yang, Lixiong & Su, Jen-Je, 2018. "Debt and growth: Is there a constant tipping point?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 133-143.
    18. Kourtellos, Andros & Stengos, Thanasis & Tan, Chih Ming, 2013. "The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 35-43.
    19. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "A Meta-Analysis on the Debt-Growth Relationship," MPRA Paper 114409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Spilioti, Stella & Vamvoukas, George, 2015. "The impact of government debt on economic growth: An empirical investigation of the Greek market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 34-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Economic growth; Debt Threshold; Threshold model; Time series.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:guc:wpaper:52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr.Dina Yousri (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fmguceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.