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Is the Slovak Economy Doing Well? A Twin Deficit Growth Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Elias Soukiazis

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)

  • Eva Muchova

    (Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia)

  • Pedro A. Cerqueira

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)

Abstract
Recently, Soukiazis E., Cerqueira P., and Antunes M. (2013) developed a model – hereafter the SCA model - that takes into account the hypotheses that internal and external imbalances can affect economic growth and additionally relative prices are assumed to be not neutral in the pace of economic growth. Although the SCA model is in the spirit of the well known balance of payments constraint hypothesis which became known as Thirlwall´s Law (Thirlwall, 1979) it is more complete in the sense that it considers, along with external imbalances (trade deficits) that internal imbalances (budget deficits or public debt) are additional constraints to economic growth. The recent euro-zone public sovereign debt crisis that started in some peripheral countries shows that when internal imbalances are excessive they can constrain growth and domestic demand, causing severe effects on unemployment rates. The aim of this paper is to apply the more complete SCA model to the Slovak economy (a newly euro-zone member since 2009) and check its accuracy for explaining the growth path in this country. Our empirical analysis shows that Slovakia grew at a higher rate than that allowed by the balance of payments constraint rate and this is consistent with the accumulation of current deficits over the period considered. A scenarios analysis shows that improving trade competitiveness and changing the import and export shares toward current account equilibrium will be the most successful way to achieving higher growth in Slovakia. Financing the economy at a lower cost is also beneficial to growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Soukiazis & Eva Muchova & Pedro A. Cerqueira, 2014. "Is the Slovak Economy Doing Well? A Twin Deficit Growth Approach," GEMF Working Papers 2014-08, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2014-08.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    2. Carlos Garcimartín & Luis A. Rivas & Pilar García Martínez, 2010. "On the role of relative prices and capital flows in balance-of-payments-constrained growth: the experiences of Portugal and Spain in the euro area," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 281-306, January.
    3. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    4. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), 2012. "Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-02395-7, March.
    5. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances and the role of relative prices: empirical evidence from Portugal," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 275-298.
    6. Elias Soukiazis & Eva Muchova, 2012. "Slovak economic growth and the consistency of the balance-of-payments constraint approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-16, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    7. Theodore Pelagidis & Evangelia Desli, 2004. "Deficits, growth, and the current slowdown: what role for fiscal policy?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 461-469.
    8. Julio López G. & Alberto Cruz B., 2000. "“Thirlwall’s Law” and Beyond: The Latin American Experience," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 477-495, March.
    9. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.
    2. Soukiazis, Soukiazis & Antunes, Micaela & Stoian, Andreea, 2015. "The effects of internal and external imbalances on Romanian’s economic growth," MPRA Paper 63558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    4. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    internal and external imbalances; price and income elasticities of external trade; equilibrium growth rates; 3SLS system regressions; supply constraints.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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