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After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Lewis, Jeffrey D.
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Thierfelder, Karen
Abstract
After protracted and difficult negotiations, agreement was recently reached on the dimensions of a South African-EU free trade deal. Because of South Africa's prominence in the sub-region, implementation of this agreement will have an impact not only on South Africa, but on all the SADC economies. This paper traces how this impact may be felt over time, using a multi-region model constructed to focus on the determination of sectoral and geographic trade patterns. By separatelymodeling South Africa and the rest of southern Africa, the model can be used to evaluate how alternative SADC regional trade strategies can influence how the EU deal affects the region's economies; by distinguishing among major trading partners (EU, North America, East Asia), the simulations can help illuminate how the trade deal will likely affect current trade patterns The empirical results lead to a number of conclusions: (1) trade creation dominates trade diversion for the region under all FTA arrangements; (2) the rest of southern Africa benefits from an FTA between the EU and South Africa — the recently signed bilateral agreement is not a “beggar thy neighbor” policy; (3) the rest of southern Africa gains more from zero-tariff access to EU markets than from a partial (50 percent) reduction in global tariffs; and (4) the South African economy is not large enough to serve as a growth pole for the region. Access to EU markets provides substantially bigger gains for the rest of southern Africa than does access to South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 1999. "After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa," TMD discussion papers 46, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:46
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hanson, Kenneth & Robinson, Sherman & Tokarick, Stephen, 1990. "U.S. Adjustment in the 1990's: A CGE Analysis of Alternative Trade Strategies," Staff Reports 278325, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Hertel, Thomas W & Masters, William A & Elbehri, Aziz, 1998. "The Uruguay Round and Africa: A Global, General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 7(2), pages 208-236, July.
    3. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Zhi, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round: The implications of an Asian free trade area," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 35-90.
    4. Jaime de MELO & Sherman ROBINSON, 2015. "Product Differentiation And The Treatment Of Foreign Trade In Computable General Equilibrium Models Of Small Economies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 2, pages 21-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), pages 1-20.
    6. Julian M. Alston & Colin A. Carter & Richard Green & Daniel Pick, 1990. "Whither Armington Trade Models?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 455-467.
    7. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644, Elsevier.
    8. Brown, Drusilla K., 1987. "Tariffs, the terms of trade, and national product differentiation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 503-526.
    9. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    10. Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Robinson, Sherman, 1992. "Labor Issues in a North American Free Trade Area," CUDARE Working Papers 198601, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    11. Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul A. & Robinson, Sherman & Lewis, Jeffrey D., 1995. "Regional integration options for Central America and the Caribbean after NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-148.
    12. John Whalley, 1984. "Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262231204, April.
    13. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1996. "Partners or predators? : the impact of regional trade liberalization on Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1626, The World Bank.
    14. DeRosa, Dean A., 1998. "Regional integration arrangements : static economic theory, quantitative findings, and policy guidelines," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2007, The World Bank.
    15. Hanson, Kenneth & Robinson, Sherman & Tokarick, Stephen, 1989. "United States Adjustment in the 1990s: A CGE Anaylsis of Alternative Trade Strategies," CUDARE Working Papers 198496, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Orecchia, Carlo & Parrado, Ramiro, 2014. "Deployment of new clean technologies in developing countries in a CGE framework: fostering investments in clean and renewable energy," Conference papers 332492, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeju, 2005. "Modeling tariff rate quotas in the South African livestock industry," Master's Degree Theses 28064, University of the Free State, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    3. Nielsen, Chantal Pohl & Thierfelder, Karen & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "Genetically modified foods, trade, and developing countries," TMD discussion papers 77, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Pohl Nielsen, Chantal & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2001. "Genetic Engineering and Trade: Panacea or Dilemma for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1307-1324, August.
    5. Lucian Cernat, 2001. "ASSESSING REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ARE SOUTH–SOUTH RTAs MORE TRADE DIVERTING?," International Trade 0109001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeju & Jooste, Andre & van Schalkwyk, Herman D. & Britz, Wolfgang, 2006. "Implications of Tariff Rate Quotas Liberalization in the South African Livestock Industry," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25469, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Francois, Joseph F. & McQueen, Matthew & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2005. "European Union-developing country FTAs: overview and analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1545-1565, October.
    8. Decaluwé, B. & Dumont, J.-C. & Mesplé-Somps, S. & Robichaud, V., 2000. "Union économique et mobilité des facteurs; le cas de l'Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africain (UEMOA)," Cahiers de recherche 0009, Université Laval - Département d'économique.

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