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The road to pro-poor growth in Zambia: past lessons and future challenges

Author

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  • Thurlow, James
  • Wobst, Peter
Abstract
"Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Almost three-quarters of the population were considered poor at the start of the 1990s, with a vast majority of these people concentrated in rural and remote areas. This extreme poverty arose in spite of Zambia's seemingly promising prospects following independence. To better understand the failure of growth and poverty-reduction this paper first considers the relationship between the structure of growth and Zambia's evolving political economy. A strong urban-bias has shaped the country's growth path leading to an economy both artificially and unsustainably distorted in favor of manufacturing and mining at the expense of rural areas. For agriculture it was the maize-bias of public policies that undermined export and growth potential within this sector....Sustained investment and economic growth during recent years suggest a possible change of fortune for Zambia. In light of this renewed growth, the paper uses a dynamic and spatially-disaggregated economy-wide model linked to a household survey to examine the potential for future poverty-reduction....Although agricultural growth is essential for substantial poverty-reduction, the country's large poor urban population necessitates growth in non-agriculture. The findings suggest that returning to a copper-led growth path is not pro-poor and that non-mining urban growth, although undermined by foreign exchange shortages and inadequate private investment, is likely to be preferable for reducing poverty." Authors' Abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2004. "The road to pro-poor growth in Zambia: past lessons and future challenges," DSGD discussion papers 16, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani & Verduzco-Gallo, Íñigo, 2014. "Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth, with an Update on Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 11-32.
    2. Diao, Xinshen & Fan, Shenggen & Yu, Bingxin & Kanyarukiga, Sam, 2007. "Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Rwanda," IFPRI discussion papers 689, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Buffie, Edward F. & Atolia, Manoj, 2012. "Trade, growth, and poverty in Zambia: Insights from a dynamic GE model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 211-229.
    4. World Bank, 2005. "Agriculture and Achieving the Millennium Development Goals," World Bank Publications - Reports 8455, The World Bank Group.
    5. Chapoto, Antony & Zulu-Mbata, Olipa & Hoffman, Barak D. & Kabaghe, Chance & Sitko, Nicholas & Kuteya, Auckland & Zulu, Ballard, 2015. "The Politics of Maize in Zambia: Who holds the Keys to Change the Status Quo?," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 212905, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    6. Bigsten, Arne & Tengstam, Sven, 2008. "Smallholder Income Diversification in Zambia: The Way Out of Poverty?," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 54490, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    7. Theodore Ahlers & Hiroshi Kato & Harinder S. Kohli & Callisto Madavo & Anil Sood (ed.), 2014. "Africa 2050: Realizing the Continent's Full Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number africa2050, July.
    8. Stuart John Barton, 2016. "Policy Signals and Market Responses," Palgrave Studies in the History of Finance, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-39098-1, February.
    9. Buffie, Edward F., 2009. "Public sector layoffs, severance pay, and inflation in the small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 987-1005, October.
    10. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Salisu Waziri & Norashidah Mohamed Nor & Nik Mustapha Raja Abdullah & Peter Adamu, 2016. "Effect of the Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and the Life Expectancy Rate on Economic Growth in SSA Countries: Difference GMM Approach," Global Journal of Health Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 212-212, April.
    12. Kabwe Harnadih Mubanga & Willem Ferguson, 2017. "Threats to food sufficiency among smallholder farmers in Choma, Zambia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 745-758, August.
    13. Edward Sennoga & Lacina Balma, 2022. "Fiscal sustainability in Africa: Accelerating the post‐COVID‐19 recovery through improved public finances," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 8-33, July.
    14. Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Exploring Growth Linkages and Market Opportunities for Agriculture in Southern Africa," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 104-137.
    15. John Murray McIntire, 2014. "Transforming African Agriculture," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(2), pages 145-179, May.
    16. Blasco, Lorea Barron & Devadoss, Stephen & Stodick, Leroy, 2006. "The Doha Round Declaration on Cotton: A Catalyst for Poverty Reduction in Africa?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21161, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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