[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fmg/fmgdps/dp583.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogenous State Prices, Liquidity, Default, and the Yield Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Raphael Espinoza
  • Dimitrios Tsomocos
  • Charles Goodhart
Abstract
We show, in an exchange economy with default, liquidity constraints and no aggregate uncertainty, that state prices in a complete markets general equilibrium are a function of the supply of liquidity by the Central Bank. Our model is derived along the lines of Dubey and Geanakoplos (1992). Twoagents trade goods and nominal assets (Arrow-Debreu (AD) securities) to smooth consumption across periods and future states, in the presence of cash-in-advance financing costs. We show that, with Von Neumann-Morgenstern logarithmic utility functions, the price of AD securities, are inversely related to liquidity. The upshot of our argument is that agents’ expectations computedusing risk-neutral probabilities give more weight in the states with higher interest rates. This result cannot be found in a Lucas-type representative agent general equilibrium model where there is neither trade or money nor default. Hence, an upward yield curve can be supported in equilibrium, even though short-term interest rates are fairly stable. The risk-premium in the term structure is therefore a pure default risk premium.Keywords: cash-in-advance constraints; risk-neutral probabilities; state prices; term structure of interest ratesJEL Classification: E43; G12

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Espinoza & Dimitrios Tsomocos & Charles Goodhart, 2007. "Endogenous State Prices, Liquidity, Default, and the Yield Curve," FMG Discussion Papers dp583, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp583
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmgdps/dp583.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, January.
    3. Min Fan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, the Term Structure and Time-varying Risk Premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 259-285, July.
    4. M. Shubik & D. Tsomocos, 1992. "A strategic market game with a mutual bank with fractional reserves and redemption in gold," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 123-150, June.
    5. Bansal, Ravi & Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1996. "A Monetary Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1135-1171, December.
    6. Franco Modigliani & Richard Sutch, 1967. "Debt Management and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis of Recent Experience," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 569-569.
    7. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2012. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," Chapters, in: The Challenge of Financial Stability, chapter 4, pages 61-97, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    9. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722, Elsevier.
    10. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos, 2006. "Determinacy with nominal assets and outside money," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 79-106, January.
    11. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    12. Jean-Michel Grandmont & Yves Younes, 1972. "On the Role of Money and the Existence of a Monetary Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 39(3), pages 355-372.
    13. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    14. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raphaël Espinoza & Charles. Goodhart & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2009. "State prices, liquidity, and default," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 39(2), pages 177-194, May.
    2. Raphael Espinoza & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2019. "Monetary transaction costs and the term premium," Chapters, in: Financial Regulation and Stability, chapter 8, pages 224-244, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Gaël Giraud & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2010. "Nominal uniqueness and money non-neutrality in the limit-price exchange process," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 303-348, October.
    4. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    5. Seppala, Juha, 2004. "The term structure of real interest rates: theory and evidence from UK index-linked bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1509-1549, October.
    6. Goodhart, Charles A.E. & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. & Wang, Xuan, 2023. "Bank credit, inflation, and default risks over an infinite horizon," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates: Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2000_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates : Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
    10. Xuan Wang, 2019. "When Do Currency Unions Benefit From Default ?," 2019 Papers pwa938, Job Market Papers.
    11. Xuan Wang, 2021. "Bankruptcy Codes and Risk Sharing of Currency Unions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-009/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Gersbach, Hans & Zelzner, Sebastian, 2022. "Why Bank Money Creation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "A Credit-Banking Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    14. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    15. Kim, Yun-Yeong, 2021. "Composite-asset-risk approach to solving the equity premium puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 200-216.
    16. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    17. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Éric Renault, 2005. "Viewpoint: Option prices, preferences, and state variables," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 1-27, February.
    18. Li Lin & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2016. "On default and uniqueness of monetary equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 245-264, June.
    19. Rubens Penha Cysne, 2005. "Equity-Premium Puzzle: Evidence From Brazilian Data," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 088, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Juan Carlos Parra‐Alvarez & Olaf Posch & Andreas Schrimpf, 2022. "Peso problems in the estimation of the C‐CAPM," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 259-313, January.
    21. Wang, Xuan, 2023. "A macro-financial perspective to analyse maturity mismatch and default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cash-in-advance constraints; risk-neutral probabilities; state prices; term structure of interest ratesjel classification: e43; g12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The FMG Administration (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.