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Using Core Inflation to Predict Headline Inflation

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Abstract
An analysis of CPI data suggests that a measure of inflation excluding food and energy and a measure excluding only energy are useful predictors of overall inflation 12 months in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael W. McCracken & Trần Khánh Ngân, 2023. "Using Core Inflation to Predict Headline Inflation," On the Economy 97414, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:l00001:97414
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    File URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/nov/using-core-inflation-predict-headline-inflation
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    core inflation; headline inflation; Consumer Price Index (CPI);
    All these keywords.

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