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Expected Home Price Increases Accelerate over the Short Term but Remain Stable over the Medium Term

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Abstract
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2022 SCE Housing Survey shows that expected changes in home prices in the year ahead increased relative to the corresponding timeframe in the February 2021 survey, while five-year expectations remained unchanged. Households reported that they would be less likely to buy if they were to move compared to the year-ago survey, marking the first annual decline since the series began in 2014. This drop was driven by current renters, who were much less likely to buy compared to renters in the 2021 survey. Renters also reported that they expect rents to be sharply higher twelve months from now, with the expected rate of increase more than twice that reported a year ago. The expected price of rent five years ahead also rose compared to expectations a year ago, but at a more moderate pace.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatima-Ezzahra Boumahdi & Leo Goldman & Andrew F. Haughwout & Benjamin Hyman & Haoyang Liu & Jason Somerville, 2022. "Expected Home Price Increases Accelerate over the Short Term but Remain Stable over the Medium Term," Liberty Street Economics 20220418, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:94009
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    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/04/expected-home-price-increases-accelerate-over-the-short-term-but-remain-stable-over-the-medium-term/
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    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny_sce_housing_chartpacket2021.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    home price expectations; rent expectations; housing outlook;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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