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A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Arce
  • Julien Bengui
  • Javier Bianchi
Abstract
This paper proposes a theory of foreign reserves as macroprudential policy. We study an open economy model of financial crises, in which pecuniary externalities lead to over-borrowing, and show that by accumulating international reserves, the government can achieve the constrained-efficient allocation. The optimal reserve accumulation policy leans against the wind and significantly reduces the exposure to financial crises. The theory is consistent with the joint dynamics of private and official capital flows, both over time and in the cross section, and can quantitatively account for the recent upward trend in international reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Arce & Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi, 2019. "A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Working Papers 761, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:761
    DOI: 10.21034/wp.761
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Clark, Peter B, 1970. "Optimum International Reserves and the Speed of Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 356-376, March-Apr.
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    4. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    6. Flemming, Jean & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul & Piguillem, Facundo, 2019. "Macro-prudential taxation in good times," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
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    11. Luigi Bocola & Guido Lorenzoni, 2020. "Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2524-2557, August.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
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    18. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
    19. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    20. Paolo Cavallino, 2019. "Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Intervention," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 127-170, April.
    21. Bengui, Julien & Bianchi, Javier, 2022. "Macroprudential policy with leakages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    22. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2016. "Multiple Equilibria in Open Economy Models with Collateral Constraints: Overborrowing Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 11623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    25. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2013. "Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-insurance against Sudden Stops," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-35, January-j.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policy; International reserves; Financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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