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Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation and Persistent Recessions

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  • Cristina Arellano
  • Yan Bai
  • Gabriel Mihalache
Abstract
Sovereign debt crises are associated with large and persistent declines in economic activity, disproportionately so for nontradable sectors. This paper documents this pattern using Spanish data and builds a two-sector dynamic quantitative model of sovereign default with capital accumulation. Recessions are very persistent in the model and more pronounced for nontraded sectors because of default risk. An adverse domestic shock increases the likelihood of default, limits capital in?ows, and thus restricts the ability of the economy to exploit investment opportunities. The economy responds by reducing investment and reallocating capital toward the traded sector to support debt service payments. The real exchange rate depreciates, a re?ection of the scarcity of traded goods. We ?nd that these mechanisms are quantitatively important for rationalizing the experience of Spain during the recent debt crisis.

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  • Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2017. "Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation and Persistent Recessions," Staff Report 555, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:555
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.555
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    Cited by:

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    3. Pozo, Jorge, 2023. "Sectoral credit reallocation: An excessive bank risk-taking explanation," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Michael Olabisi, 2020. "Input–Output Linkages and Sectoral Volatility," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 713-746, July.
    5. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain & Claeys, Peter, 2020. "Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors and fiscal transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Olivier CARDI & Romain RESTOUT, 2023. "Why Hours Worked Decline Less After Technology Shocks?," Working Papers of BETA 2023-30, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Bertinelli, Luisito & Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2022. "Labor market effects of technology shocks biased toward the traded sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kozo Ueda, 2017. "Secular Stagnation under the Fear of a Government Debt Disaster," CIGS Working Paper Series 17-012E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    9. Florent Kanga GBONGUE & Lambert N’Galadjo BAMBA, 2023. "Le modèle hybride de la structure par terme des primes souveraines de crédit et de liquidité dans la zone UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 57, pages 101-145.
    10. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    11. Cristina Arellano & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2018. "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 779-824, June.
    13. Minjie Deng and Chang Liu, 2024. "Public Financing Under Balanced Budget Rules," Discussion Papers dp24-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    14. Farah-Yacoub,Juan P. & Graf Von Luckner,Clemens Mathis Henrik & Ramalho,Rita & Reinhart,Carmen M., 2022. "The Social Costs of Sovereign Default," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10157, The World Bank.
    15. Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2023. "Sovereign debt," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 17, pages 378-405, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Mr. Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2022/122, International Monetary Fund.
      • Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldan & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," Working Papers 167, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    16. Minjie Deng & Chang Liu, 2021. "Sovereign Risk and Intangible Investment," Discussion Papers dp21-16, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    17. George Alessandria & Minjie Deng & Yan Bai, 2019. "Sovereign Default Risk and Migration," 2019 Meeting Papers 1085, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Fornari, Fabio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2022. "It’s not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    19. Sophie Piton, 2017. "Economic Integration and the Non-tradable Sector: The European Experience," 2017 Papers ppi361, Job Market Papers.
    20. Dachraoui, Hajer & Smida, Mounir & Sebri, Maamar, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 15-33.
    21. Alessandria, George & Bai, Yan & Deng, Minjie, 2020. "Migration and sovereign default risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-22.
    22. Zhizhen Chen & Guifen Shi & Boyang Sun, 2024. "Cross-border spillovers in G20 sovereign CDS markets: cluster analysis based on K-means machine learning algorithm and TVP–VAR models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2463-2502, December.
    23. Esquivel, Carlos, 2024. "Underinvestment and capital misallocation under sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    24. Yfanti, Stavroula & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zopounidis, Constantin & Christopoulos, Apostolos, 2023. "Corporate credit risk counter-cyclical interdependence: A systematic analysis of cross-border and cross-sector correlation dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 813-831.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Traded and nontraded production; Sovereign default with production economy; Capital accumulation; Real exchange rate; European debt crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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