[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/2014-016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

QE: when and how should the Fed exit?

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Wen
Abstract
The essence of Quantitative Easing (QE) is to reduce the costs of private borrowing through large-scale purchases of privately issue debts, instead of public debts (Ben Bernanke, 2009). Notwithstanding the effectiveness of this highly unconventional monetary policy in reviving private investment and the economy, it is time to think about the likely impacts of the unwinding of QE (or the reversed private-asset purchases) on the economy. In a standard economic model, if monetary injections can increase aggregate output and employment, then the reversed action will likely undo such effects. Would this imply that the U.S. economy will dive into a recession once the Fed starts its large-scale asset sales (under the assumption that QE has successfully pulled the economy out of the Great Recession)? This paper shows that three aspects of the Federal Reserve?s exit strategy matter for achieving (or maintaining) maximum gains in aggregate output and employment under QE (if any): (i) the timing of exit, (ii) the pace of exit, and (iii) the private sector?s expectations of when and how the Fed will exit.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Wen, 2014. "QE: when and how should the Fed exit?," Working Papers 2014-16, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2014-016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2014/2014-016.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2018. "Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 221-251, April.
    2. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 184-221, July.
    3. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2009. "Financial development and economic volatility: a unified explanation," Working Papers 2009-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2018. "Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 221-251, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cui, Wei, 2016. "Monetary–fiscal interactions with endogenous liquidity frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-25.
    2. Feng Dong & Yi Wen, 2017. "Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Yi Wen, 2014. "When and how to exit quantitative easing?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(3), pages 243-265.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi Wen, 2014. "When and how to exit quantitative easing?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(3), pages 243-265.
    2. Jeremy Greenwood & Juan M. Sanchez & Cheng Wang, 2010. "Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1875-1891, September.
    3. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 184-221, July.
    4. Yi Wen, 2013. "Evaluating unconventional monetary policies -why aren’t they more effective?," Working Papers 2013-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Hejie Zhang & Huiming Lv & Shenghau Lin, 2021. "Financial Development, Saving Rates, and International Economic Volatility: A Simple Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Yuan, Shenguo & Wu, Zhouheng & Liu, Lanfeng, 2022. "The effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on Chinese macroeconomic volatilities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Eugenia Grecu, 2023. "Government Interventions and Sovereign Bond Market Volatility during COVID-19: A Quantile Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Novi Maryaningsih & Suahasil Nazara & Febrio N. Kacaribu & Solikin M. Juhro, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currency: What Factors Determine Its Adoption?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(1), pages 1-24, June.
    9. Uddin, Moshfique & Chowdhury, Anup & Anderson, Keith & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2021. "The effect of COVID – 19 pandemic on global stock market volatility: Can economic strength help to manage the uncertainty?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-44.
    10. Tony Cavoli & Sasidaran Gopalan & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2020. "Does Financial Inclusion Amplify Output Volatility in Emerging and Developing Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 901-930, September.
    11. Ameen Omar Shareef & K.P. Prabheesh, 2022. "Does International Monetary Policy Influence The Bank Risk? Evidence From India," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(2), pages 135-154, August.
    12. Shuonan Zhang, 2020. "State-owned enterprises and entrusted lending: A DSGE analysis for growth and business cycles in China," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2020-01, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    13. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2021. "Easing economic vulnerability: Multidimensional evidence of financial development," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 237-252.
    14. Chima Igwe-Kalu & Barnabas Olusegun Obasaju, 2020. "Output Volatility in Nigeria: Does Financial Development Absorb Trade-Led Shocks?," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 10(2), pages 66-78.
    15. Victoria I. Okafor & Isaiah O. Olurinola & Ebenezer Bowale & Romanus Osabohien, 2023. "Financial development and income inequality in Africa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Ho, Shan-Ju, 2020. "Financial inclusion, financial innovation, and firms’ sales growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 189-205.
    17. Areal, Francisco José & Balcombe, Kevin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2016. "Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(01), June.
    18. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2012. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows, Banking and Currency Crises, and Sudden Stops," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, April.
    19. Ren, Yu & Xiong, Cong & Yuan, Yufei, 2012. "House price bubbles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 786-800.
    20. He, Yiyao, 2022. "Heterogeneous stock traders, endogenous bubbles, and economic fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Large-Scale Asset Purchases; Unconventional Monetary Policies; Quantitative Easing; Qualitative Easing; Optimal Exit Strategies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2014-016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.