[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/wp-2017-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Decline in Intergenerational Mobility After 1980

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Davis
  • Bhashkar Mazumder
Abstract
We demonstrate that intergenerational mobility declined sharply for cohorts born between 1957 and 1964 compared to those born between 1942 and 1953. The former entered the labor market largely after the large rise in inequality that occurred around 1980 while the latter entered the labor market before this inflection point. We show that the rank-rank slope rose from 0.27 to 0.4 and the IGE rose from 0.35 to 0.51. The share of children whose income exceeds that of their parents fell by about 3 percentage points. These findings suggest that relative mobility fell by substantially more than absolute mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Davis & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2017. "The Decline in Intergenerational Mobility After 1980," Working Paper Series WP-2017-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 14 Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2017-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/working-papers/2017/wp2017-05-pdf.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moshe Justman & Anna Krush, 2013. "Less Equal And Less Mobile: Evidence Of A Decline In Intergenerational Income Mobility In The United Statesless Equal And Less Mobile: Evidence Of A Decline In Intergenerational Income Mobility In The," Working Papers 1315, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    2. Robert Paul Hartley & Carlos Lamarche & James P. Ziliak, 2022. "Welfare Reform and the Intergenerational Transmission of Dependence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(3), pages 523-565.
    3. Jantti, Markus & Bratsberg, Bernt & Roed, Knut & Raaum, Oddbjorn & Naylor, Robin & Osterbacka, Eva & Bjorklund, Anders & Eriksson, Tor, 2005. "American exceptionalism in a new light: a comparison of intergenerational earnings mobility in the Nordic countries, the United Kingdom and the United States," Economic Research Papers 269752, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    4. Maia Güell & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Christopher I. Telmer, 2015. "The Informational Content of Surnames, the Evolution of Intergenerational Mobility, and Assortative Mating," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 693-735.
    5. Bhashkar Mazumder, 2005. "Fortunate Sons: New Estimates of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States Using Social Security Earnings Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 235-255, May.
    6. Miles Corak, 2013. "Income Inequality, Equality of Opportunity, and Intergenerational Mobility," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 79-102, Summer.
    7. Sean F. Reardon & Kendra Bischoff & Ann Owens & Joseph B. Townsend, 2018. "Has Income Segregation Really Increased? Bias and Bias Correction in Sample-Based Segregation Estimates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2129-2160, December.
    8. Claudia Olivetti & M. Daniele Paserman, 2015. "In the Name of the Son (and the Daughter): Intergenerational Mobility in the United States, 1850-1940," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2695-2724, August.
    9. Lutz Hendricks & Christopher Herrington & Todd Schoellman, 2018. "College Access and Attendance Patterns: A Long-Run View," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 10, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Steven Haider & Gary Solon, 2006. "Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1308-1320, September.
    11. Martin Nybom & Jan Stuhler, 2024. "Interpreting Trends in Intergenerational Mobility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2531-2570.
    12. Rania Gihleb & Kevin Lang, 2020. "Educational Homogamy and Assortative Mating Have Not Increased," Research in Labor Economics, in: Change at Home, in the Labor Market, and On the Job, volume 48, pages 1-26, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. Jason Long & Joseph Ferrie, 2013. "Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Great Britain and the United States since 1850: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 2041-2049, August.
    14. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Patrick Kline & Emmanuel Saez, 2014. "Where is the land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1553-1623.
    15. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    16. Corak,Miles (ed.), 2004. "Generational Income Mobility in North America and Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521827607, September.
    17. Gary S. Becker & Nigel Tomes, 1994. "Human Capital and the Rise and Fall of Families," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 257-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Espen Bratberg & Jonathan Davis & Bhashkar Mazumder & Martin Nybom & Daniel D. Schnitzlein & Kjell Vaage, 2017. "A Comparison of Intergenerational Mobility Curves in Germany, Norway, Sweden, and the US," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(1), pages 72-101, January.
    19. Levine, D.I., 1999. "Choosing the Right Parents: Changes in the Intergenerational Transmission of Inequality Between the 1970s and the Early 1990s," Papers 72, California Berkeley - Institute of Industrial Relations.
    20. Helena Holmlund, 2022. "How Much Does Marital Sorting Contribute to Intergenerational Socioeconomic Persistence?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(2), pages 372-399.
    21. Martin Nybom & Jan Stuhler, 2017. "Biases in Standard Measures of Intergenerational Income Dependence," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(3), pages 800-825.
    22. Moshe Justman & Hadas Stiassnie, 2021. "Intergenerational Mobility in Lifetime Income," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(4), pages 928-949, December.
    23. Raj Chetty & David Grusky & Maximilian Hell & Nathaniel Hendren & Robert Manduca & Jimmy Narang, 2016. "The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940," NBER Working Papers 22910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Jason Long & Joseph Ferrie, 2013. "Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Great Britain and the United States since 1850," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1109-1137, June.
    25. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–1998," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 1-41.
    26. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1999. "The Returns to Skill in the United States across the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 7126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
    28. Chul-In Lee & Gary Solon, 2009. "Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 766-772, November.
    29. Daniel Aaronson & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2008. "Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the United States, 1940 to 2000," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(1).
    30. Robert Schoeni & Emily Wiemers, 2015. "The implications of selective attrition for estimates of intergenerational elasticity of family income," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(3), pages 351-372, September.
    31. Solon, Gary, 1992. "Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 393-408, June.
    32. Moshe Justman & Anna Krush, 2013. "Less Equal and Less Mobile: Evidence of a Decline in Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2013n43, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    33. Becker, Gary S & Tomes, Nigel, 1979. "An Equilibrium Theory of the Distribution of Income and Intergenerational Mobility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1153-1189, December.
    34. Wojciech Kopczuk & Emmanuel Saez & Jae Song, 2010. "Earnings Inequality and Mobility in the United States: Evidence from Social Security Data Since 1937," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 91-128.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan & Steven N. Durlauf, 2022. "The Great Gatsby Curve," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 571-605, August.
    2. Godechot, Olivier & Apascaritei, Paula & Boza, István & Henriksen, Lasse Folke & Hermansen, Are Skeie & Hou, Feng & Kodama, Naomi & Křížková, Alena & Jung, Jiwook & Elvira, Marta M. & Melzer, Silvia M, 2020. "The great separation: Top earner segregation at work in high-income countries," MaxPo Discussion Paper Series 20/3, Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo).
    3. Yoosoon Chang & Steven Durlauf & Seunghee Lee & Joon Park, 2023. "A Trajectories-Based Approach to Measuring Intergenerational Mobility," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-004 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Sebastian Hohmann & Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2021. "Intergenerational Mobility in Africa," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 1-35, January.
    5. Steven N. Durlauf & Ananth Seshadri, 2018. "Understanding the Great Gatsby Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 333-393.
    6. Nathan Deutscher & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2023. "Measuring Intergenerational Income Mobility: A Synthesis of Approaches," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 988-1036, September.
    7. Chris Belfield & Claire Crawford & Ellen Greaves & Paul Gregg & Lindsey Macmillan, 2017. "Intergenerational income persistence within families," IFS Working Papers W17/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Brantly Callaway & Weige Huang, 2018. "Intergenerational Income Mobility: Counterfactual Distributions with a Continuous Treatment," DETU Working Papers 1801, Department of Economics, Temple University.
    9. Olcina, Gonzalo & Calabuig, Vicente, 2021. "Trust and punishment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Nizam MelikÅŸah Demirtas & Orhan Torul, 2021. "Intergenerational Income Mobility in Turkey Abstract:," Working Papers 2021/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    11. George A. Erickcek, 2023. "What is Inclusionary Economic Development—What if Employees Mattered?," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 37(1), pages 27-33, February.
    12. Stephen Smith, 2018. "Development Economics Meets the Challenges of Lagging U.S. Areas: Applications to Education, Health and Nutrition, Behavior, and Infrastructure," Working Papers 2018-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    13. Ulrika Ahrsjö & René Karadakic & Joachim Kahr Rasmussen, 2021. "Intergenerational Mobility Trends and the Changing Role of Female Labor," CEBI working paper series 21-19, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus Jäntti & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2013. "Income Mobility," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 607, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Guido Neidhöfer, 2019. "Intergenerational mobility and the rise and fall of inequality: Lessons from Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(4), pages 499-520, December.
    3. Barbara Castillo Rico, 2020. "Trends in intergenerational homeownership mobility in France between 1960-2015," AMSE Working Papers 2008, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Lijie Song, 2022. "Examining the Relationship Between Intergenerational Upward Mobility and Inequality: Evidence from Panel Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Yu-Wei Luke Chu & Ming-Jen Lin, 2020. "Intergenerational earnings mobility in Taiwan: 1990–2010," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 11-45, July.
    6. Bhashkar Mazumder, 2018. "Intergenerational Mobility in the United States: What We Have Learned from the PSID," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 680(1), pages 213-234, November.
    7. Adrian Adermon & Mikael Lindahl & Mårten Palme, 2021. "Dynastic Human Capital, Inequality, and Intergenerational Mobility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1523-1548, May.
    8. Zhang, Xinmiao & Deguilhem, Thibaud, 2022. "Climbing the Social Ladder: Does Intergenerational Solidarity matter?," MPRA Paper 115241, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chu, Luke Yu-Wei & Lin, Ming-Jen, 2016. "Economic development and intergenerational earnings mobility: Evidence from Taiwan," Working Paper Series 19495, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Bertha Rohenkohl, 2019. "Intergenerational Income Mobility in the UK:New evidence using the BHPS and Understanding Society," Working Papers 2019017, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    11. Florencia Torche, 2015. "Analyses of Intergenerational Mobility," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 657(1), pages 37-62, January.
    12. Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut, 2017. "Egalitarianism under Pressure: Toward Lower Economic Mobility in the Knowledge Economy?," IZA Discussion Papers 10664, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Pekkarinen, Tuomas & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Sarvimäki, Matti, 2016. "The Evolution of Social Mobility: Norway over the 20th Century," IZA Discussion Papers 9752, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Zachary Ward, 2023. "Intergenerational Mobility in American History: Accounting for Race and Measurement Error," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3213-3248, December.
    15. Michelle M. Miller & Frank McIntyre, 2020. "Does Money Matter for Intergenerational Income Transmission?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(3), pages 941-970, January.
    16. Elisa Jácome & Ilyana Kuziemko & Suresh Naidu, 2021. "Mobility for All: Representative Intergenerational Mobility Estimates over the 20th Century," Working Papers 302, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    17. Daniel D. Schnitzlein, 2016. "A New Look at Intergenerational Mobility in Germany Compared to the U.S," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(4), pages 650-667, December.
    18. Mello, Ursula & Nybom, Martin & Stuhler, Jan, 2022. "A lifecycle estimator of intergenerational income mobility," Working Paper Series 2022:21, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    19. Nathaniel G. Hilger, 2015. "The Great Escape: Intergenerational Mobility in the United States Since 1940," NBER Working Papers 21217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Guo, Ningning, 2022. "Hollowing out of opportunity: Automation technology and intergenerational mobility in the United States," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intergenerational mobility; income; labor markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2017-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.