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Assessing Bayesian model comparison in small samples

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Abstract
We investigate the Bayesian approach to model comparison within a two-country framework with nominal rigidities using the workhorse New Keynesian open-economy model of Martnez-Garca and Wynne (2010). We discuss the trade-offs that monetary policy characterized by a Taylor-type rule faces in an interconnected world, with perfectly flexible exchange rates. We then use posterior model probabilities to evaluate the weight of evidence in support of such a model when estimated against more parsimonious specifications that either abstract from monetary frictions or assume autarky by means of controlled experiments that employ simulated data. We argue that Bayesian model comparison with posterior odds is sensitive to sample size and the choice of observable variables for estimation. We show that posterior model probabilities strongly penalize overfitting which can lead us to favor a less parameterized model against the true data-generating process when the two become arbitrarily close to each other. We also illustrate that the spill-overs from monetary policy across countries have an added confounding effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne, 2014. "Assessing Bayesian model comparison in small samples," Globalization Institute Working Papers 189, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:189
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp189
    Note: Published as: Martínez-García, Enrique and Mark A. Wynne (2014), "Assessing Bayesian Model Comparison in Small Samples," in Bayesian Model Comparison, ed. Ivan Jeliazkov and Dale J. Poirer (Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited), 71-115.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    18. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hany Guirguis & Vaneesha Boney Dutra & Zoe McGreevy, 2022. "The impact of global economies on US inflation: A test of the Phillips curve," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 575-592, July.
    2. Enrique Martínez-García, 2019. "Good Policies or Good Luck? New Insights on Globalization and the International Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 419-454, June.
    3. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Enrique Martínez-García, 2015. "The Global Component of Local Inflation: Revisiting the Empirical Content of the Global Slack Hypothesis with Bayesian Methods," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 51-112, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Ivashchenko, Sergey & Mutschler, Willi, 2020. "The effect of observables, functional specifications, model features and shocks on identification in linearized DSGE models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 280-292.
    6. Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne, 2014. "Technical note on \"assessing Bayesian model comparison in small samples\"," Globalization Institute Working Papers 190, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Martínez-García, Enrique, 2021. "Get the lowdown: The international side of the fall in the U.S. natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Nektarios A. Michail & George Thucydides, 2019. "The impact of foreign demand on Cyprus house prices," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 13(2), pages 48-71, December.
    9. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez‐García, 2023. "Forecasting inflation in open economies: What can a NOEM model do?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 481-513, April.
    10. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez García, 2015. "Forecasting local inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 235, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 21 Dec 2022.

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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