[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/987.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Chinese exports sensitive to changes in the exchange rate?

Author

Abstract
This paper builds a model of two types of Chinese exports, those processed and assembled largely from imported inputs (\"processed\" exports) and \"non-processed\" exports. Based on this model, the sensitivity of Chinese exports to exchange rate changes is empirically examined. Unlike previous work, the estimation period includes the net real appreciation of the renminbi that has occurred over the past three years. The results show that greater exchange rate appreciation dampens export growth, both for non-processed and processed exports, with the estimated cumulative price elasticity being substantially greater than unity. When the source of the increase in the Chinese real exchange rate is appreciations against the currencies of other emerging Asian trading partners, the effect on processing exports is positive but insignificant, while the effect on non-processing exports is significantly negative. By contrast, when the source of the increase in the Chinese real exchange rate is appreciation against China's advanced-economy trading partners, the effects on both types of exports are negative. These results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Counterfactual simulations based on the estimated model strongly suggest that if the trade-weighted real renminbi had appreciated at an annual rate of 10 percent per quarter since mid-2005, Chinese real exports would have been roughly 30 percent lower today. Thus greater exchange rate flexibility could contribute to lowering China's huge trade surplus through restraining growth of exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaghil Ahmed, 2009. "Are Chinese exports sensitive to changes in the exchange rate?," International Finance Discussion Papers 987, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2009/987/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2009/987/ifdp987.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony J. Makin, 2007. "Does China's Huge External Surplus Imply an Undervalued Renminbi?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 89-102, May.
    2. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, February.
    3. Nicholas R. Lardy, 2006. "China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path," Policy Briefs PB06-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What's So Special about China's Exports?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Steven Dunaway & Lamin Leigh & Xiangming Li, 2009. "How Robust Are Estimates Of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case Of China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 361-375, August.
    6. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Charles P. Thomas & Jaime Marquez & Sean Fahle, 2009. "Measures Of International Relative Prices For China And The Usa," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 376-397, August.
    9. Morris Goldstein, 2007. "A (Lack of) Progress Report on China's Exchange Rate Policies," Working Paper Series WP07-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    10. Willem Thorbecke & Hanjiang Zhang, 2009. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes On China'S Labour‐Intensive Manufacturing Exports," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 398-409, August.
    11. John Williamson, 2009. "Exchange Rate Economics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 123-146, February.
    12. Mizanur RAHMAN & Willem THORBECKE, 2007. "How Would China's Exports be Affected by a Unilateral Appreciation of the RMB and a Joint Appreciation of Countries Supplying Intermediate Imports?," Discussion papers 07012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Thorbecke Willem, 2006. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What’s So Special about China’s Exports?," Working Papers id:410, eSocialSciences.
    15. repec:bla:ausecr:v:40:y:2007:i:1:p:3-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Barry Eichengreen, 2005. "Is a Change in the Renminbi Exchange Rate in China's Interest?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 40-75, Winter.
    17. Jeffrey Frankel, 2006. "On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(2), pages 246-275, June.
    18. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-94, March.
    20. Jaime Marquez & John Schindler, 2007. "Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 837-853, November.
    21. Yue Ma & Huayu Sun, 2007. "Hot Money Inflows and Renminbi Revaluation Pressure," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 19-36.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    2. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    3. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Xingwang Qian, 2014. "The Structural Behavior of China-US Trade Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 5123, CESifo.
    7. Meixing Dai, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," Working Papers of BETA 2011-23, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Das, Dilip K., 2009. "The evolution of renminbi yuan and the protracted debate on its undervaluation: An integrated review," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 570-579, September.
    11. Yu, Miaojie, 2009. "Revaluation of the Chinese Yuan and triad trade: A gravity assessment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 655-668, November.
    12. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "The effect of oil price on China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
    13. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    14. Rahman, Mizanur, 2008. "The Impact of a Common Currency on East Asian Production Networks and China’s Exports Behavior," MPRA Paper 13931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Thorbecke, Willem, 2015. "China–US trade: A global outlier," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 47-58.
    16. Xing, Yuqing, 2012. "Processing trade, exchange rates and China's bilateral trade balances," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 540-547.
    17. Miaojie Yu, 2010. "Does Appreciation of the RMB Decrease Imports to the U.S. from China?," Trade Working Papers 22040, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    18. Witada Anukoonwattaka, 2013. "International Production Sharing and Exchange Rates of Asian Countries," Studies in Trade and Investment 80, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    19. Thorbecke, Willem, 2011. "Investigating the effect of exchange rate changes on china's processed exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 33-46, June.
    20. Fall, Moussa K., 2019. "To what extent real exchange rate appreciation contributed to the shrinking of China's trade surpluses following the global financial crises?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 235-242.
    21. Marcus Kappler & Helmut Reisen & Moritz Schularick & Edouard Turkisch, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 471-494, July.
    22. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignment - The Case of the Chinese Renminbi," CESifo Working Paper Series 3797, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates; Exports;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:987. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.