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What Does the Beveridge Curve Tell Us about the Likelihood of Soft Landings?

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Abstract
Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment. We use a simple model of the Beveridge curve to investigate what conditions are necessary for a soft landing in the labor market to occur and what the likelihood of these conditions was during the height of the pandemic-period inflation. We find that a soft landing was a plausible outcome at that time. Since then, the evolution of the labor market has borne out that prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Figura & Christopher J. Waller, 2024. "What Does the Beveridge Curve Tell Us about the Likelihood of Soft Landings?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-73
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.073
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher J. Waller, 2023. "The Unstable Phillips Curve: a speech at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy, a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, March 31, 2023," Speech 95912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Guénette, Justin Damien & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "Is a Global Recession Imminent?," MPRA Paper 114627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Huixin Bi & Chaitri Gulati & Jose Mustre-del-Rio, 2022. "A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue August 10, pages 1-4, August.
    5. Randal Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2024. "Post‐COVID inflation dynamics: Higher for longer," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 871-893, July.
    6. Lee, King Fuei, 2023. "Is Singapore’s Beveridge Curve Suffering From Long Covid Shifts?," MPRA Paper 117841, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor market; Unemployment; Soft landing; Beveridge curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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