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Does the Federal Reserve have an informational advantage? you can bank on it

Author

Listed:
  • Joe Peek
  • Eric Rosengren
  • Geoffrey M. B. Tootell
Abstract
Even in a world with rational expectations, it has been well established theoretically that if the central bank possesses information superior to that available to the public, there is room for effective and socially beneficial countercyclical monetary policy. This paper tests whether confidential information from bank supervisors could be one source of any such informational advantage. In particular, we examine whether information gained from bank supervision activities could substantially improve the forecasts of macroeconomic variables important for guiding monetary policy. We find that confidential supervisory information on bank ratings significantly improves private forecasts of inflation and unemployment rates, thus providing an informational advantage to the Federal Reserve.

Suggested Citation

  • Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1998. "Does the Federal Reserve have an informational advantage? you can bank on it," Working Papers 98-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:98-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 99-118.
    2. Edward Kutsoati & Sharun Mukand, 2004. "Expectations and the Central Banker: Making Decisions the Market Expects to See? [revised]," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0418, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    3. Allen Berger & Sally Davies, 1998. "The Information Content of Bank Examinations," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 117-144, October.
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    5. Berger Helge & Thum Marcel, 2000. "News Management in Monetary Policy: When Central Banks Should Talk to the Government," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 1(4), pages 465-493, December.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
    9. Papadimitri, Panagiota & Staikouras, Panagiotis & Travlos, Nickolaos G. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2019. "Punished banks' acquisitions: Evidence from the U.S. banking industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 744-764.
    10. Ajay A. Palvia, 2012. "Management Turnover, Regulatory Oversight and Performance: Evidence from Community Banks," Chapters, in: James R. Barth & Chen Lin & Clas Wihlborg (ed.), Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance, chapter 26, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
    12. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal & Kot, Adam, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," MPRA Paper 10296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Xavier Vives, 2001. "Restructuring Financial Regulation in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 57-82, February.
    14. Dalla Pellegrina, L. & Masciandaro, D. & Pansini, R.V., 2013. "The central banker as prudential supervisor: Does independence matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 415-427.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
    16. David T. Llewellyn, 1999. "The New Economics of Banking," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 5 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    17. L. Dalla Pellegrina & D. Masciandaro & R. Pansini, 2014. "Do exchange rate regimes affect the role of central banks as banking supervisors?," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 279-315, October.
    18. Xavier Vives, 2002. "Réglementation nationale et mondialisation : le cas des marchés financiers," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 10(1), pages 141-169.

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