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The Incentives to Participate in, and the Stability of, International Climate Coalitions: A Game-theoretic Analysis Using the Witch Model

Author

Listed:
  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Princeton University, FEEM and CMCC)

  • Carlo Carraro

    (University of Venice, FEEM, CEPR, CESifo and CMCC)

  • Enrica De Cian

    (FEEM)

  • Romain Duval

    (OECD)

  • Emanuele Massetti

    (FEEM and CMCC)

  • Massimo Tavoni

    (Princeton University, FEEM and CMCC)

Abstract
This paper uses WITCH, an integrated assessment model with a game-theoretic structure, to explore the prospects for, and the stability of broad coalitions to achieve ambitious climate change mitigation action. Only coalitions including all large emitting regions are found to be technically able to meet a concentration stabilisation target below 550 ppm CO2eq by 2100. Once the free-riding incentives of non-participants are taken into account, only a “grand coalition” including virtually all regions can be successful. This grand coalition is profitable as a whole, implying that all countries can gain from participation provided appropriate transfers are made across them. However, neither the grand coalition nor smaller but still environmentally significant coalitions appear to be stable. This is because the collective welfare surplus from cooperation is not found to be large enough for transfers to offset the free-riding incentives of all countries simultaneously. Some factors omitted from the analysis, which might improve coalition stability, include the co-benefits from mitigation action, the costless removal of fossil fuel subsidies, as well as alternative assumptions regarding countries’ bargaining behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Enrica De Cian & Romain Duval & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The Incentives to Participate in, and the Stability of, International Climate Coalitions: A Game-theoretic Analysis Using the Witch Model," Working Papers 2009.64, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2009.64
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    1. Carlo Carraro, 2009. "The Road to Copenhagen: What Agreement Can Actually Be Effective and Stable? by Carlo Carraro," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(03), pages 30-36, October.
    2. Yingying Lu & David I. Stern, 2016. "Substitutability and the Cost of Climate Mitigation Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(1), pages 81-107, May.
    3. Herve Moulin & Indrajit Ray & Sonali Sen Gupta, 2013. "Coarse Correlated Equilibria in an Abatement Game," Discussion Papers 13-11, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    4. Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & De Cian, Enrica & Massetti, Emanuele & Tavoni, Massimo, 2013. "Incentives and stability of international climate coalitions: An integrated assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 44-56.
    5. Gersbach, Hans & Hummel, Noemi, 2016. "A development-compatible refunding scheme for a climate treaty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 139-168.
    6. Carlo Carraro, 2009. "The Road to Copenhagen: What Agreement Can Actually Be Effective and Stable? by Carlo Carraro," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(3), pages 30-36, October.
    7. Thierry Bréchet & Carmen Camacho & Vladimir Veliov, 2014. "Model predictive control, the economy, and the issue of global warming," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 220(1), pages 25-48, September.
    8. Carlo Carraro & Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2009. "An Analysis of Adaptation as a Response to Climate Change," Working Papers 2009_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    9. Hans Gersbach & Noemi Hummel & Ralph Winkler, 2011. "Sustainable Climate Treaties," Diskussionsschriften dp1105, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    10. Sferra, Fabio & Tavoni, Massimo, 2013. "Endogenous Participation in a Partial Climate Agreement with Open Entry: A Numerical Assessment," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 156486, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    11. Marco Rogna, 2020. "Microeconomic models of a production economy with environmental externalities," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 2625-2650, March.
    12. Trivikram Dokka Venkata Satyanaraya & Herve Moulin & Indrajit Ray & Sonali Sen Gupta, 2019. "Improving Abatement Levels and Welfare by Coarse Correlation in an Environmental Game," Working Papers 266042710, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    13. Lu, Yingying & Stegman, Alison & Cai, Yiyong, 2013. "Emissions intensity targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen commitment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1164-1177.
    14. Stine Aakre, 2016. "The political feasibility of potent enforcement in a post-Kyoto climate agreement," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 145-159, February.
    15. Hans Gersbach & Noemi Hummel & Ralph Winkler, 2021. "Long-Term Climate Treaties with a Refunding Club," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(3), pages 511-552, November.
    16. Massetti, Emanuele & Tavoni, Massimo, 2012. "A developing Asia emission trading scheme (Asia ETS)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 436-443.
    17. Trivikram Dokka Venkata Satyanaraya & Herve Moulin & Indrajit Ray & Sonali Sen Gupta, 2020. "Equilibrium Design by Coarse Correlation in Quadratic Games," Working Papers 301895429, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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