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Riesgo y costes medios en la generación de electricidad: diversificación e implicaciones de política energética

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo A. Marrero
  • Luis A. Puch
  • Francisco Javier Ramos-Real
Abstract
Buena parte del diseño de política energética actual se centra en el estudio individual de los costes de las diferentes opciones tecnológicas de generación de electricidad. En este artículo mostramos que el riesgo asociado a los costes de generación para las distintas tecnologías constituye una variable relevante en la valoración de la eficiencia del mix energético. Dicho riesgo se mide por la incertidumbre asociada a los distintos tipos de costes y la correlación entre ellos a través de las distintas tecnologías. Los resultados sugieren que una cartera eficiente supondría al menos una disminución del 2% en el coste medio, del 30% en el riesgo de costes y de un 17% en emisiones de CO2 respecto a cierta cartera representativa del mix energético europeo para los próximos años. La complementariedad de las energías renovables con las energías fósiles y la nuclear es crucial para poder alcanzar ganancias en las tres dimensiones anteriores. En particular, incorporar el riesgo de costes en el análisis hace compatible una reducción de las emisiones y unos menores costes de generación. Los resultados sugieren algunas reflexiones relevantes de política energética y medioambiental, relacionadas con el mercado de emisiones, los problemas de interrumpibilidad de las renovables y la necesidad de reducir el factor descuento de las tecnologías más intensivas en inversión inicial, que resultan ser las menos contaminantes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo A. Marrero & Luis A. Puch & Francisco Javier Ramos-Real, 2010. "Riesgo y costes medios en la generación de electricidad: diversificación e implicaciones de política energética," Economic Reports 13-2010, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdacee:13-2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marrero, Gustavo A. & Ramos-Real, Francisco Javier, 2010. "Electricity generation cost in isolated system: The complementarities of natural gas and renewables in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2808-2818, December.
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    1. Marrero, Gustavo A. & Puch, Luis A. & Ramos-Real, Francisco J., 2015. "Mean-variance portfolio methods for energy policy risk management," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 246-264.

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