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Reaping the Carbon Rent: Abatement and Overallocation Profits in the European Cement industry, Insights from an LMDI Decomposition Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Frédéric Branger

    (CIRED et AgroParisTech ENGREF)

  • Philippe Quirion

    (CNRS et CIRED)

Abstract
We analyse variations of carbon emissions in the European cement industry from 1990 to 2011, at the European level(EU 27), and at the national level for six major producers (Germany, France, Spain, United Kingdom, Italy and Poland). We apply a Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, crossing data from three databases: the Getting the Numbers Right (GNR) database developed by the Cement Sustainability Initiative, the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL), and the Eurostat International Trade database. Our decomposition method allows disentangling seven channels of emissions change: activity, clinker trade, clinker share, alternative fuels, thermal and electric energy efficiency, and electricity decarbonisation. We find that, apart from a slow trend of emissions reductions coming from technological improvements(first from a decrease in the clinker share, then from an increase in alternative fuels), most of the emissions changes can be attributed to the activity effect. Using counterfactual scenarios, we estimate that the introduction of the EU ETS brought small but positive technological abatement (2.0% ± 1.1% between 2005 and 2011). Moreover, we find that the European cement industry have gained 3.5 billion euros of “overallocation profits”, mostly due to the slowdown of production. Based on these findings, we advocate for output-based allocations, based on a stringent hybrid clinker and cement benchmarking.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Branger & Philippe Quirion, 2014. "Reaping the Carbon Rent: Abatement and Overallocation Profits in the European Cement industry, Insights from an LMDI Decomposition Analysis," Working Papers 2014.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:fae:wpaper:2014.10
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    Cited by:

    1. Frédéric Branger & Misato Sato, 2017. "Solving the clinker dilemma with hybrid output-based allocation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 483-501, February.
    2. Philippe Quirion, 2022. "Output-based allocation and output-based rebates: a survey," Chapters, in: Handbook on Trade Policy and Climate Change, chapter 7, pages 94-107, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Ang, B.W. & Wang, H., 2015. "Index decomposition analysis with multidimensional and multilevel energy data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 67-76.
    4. Huang, Yun-Hsun & Chang, Yi-Lin & Fleiter, Tobias, 2016. "A critical analysis of energy efficiency improvement potentials in Taiwan's cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 14-26.
    5. Frédéric Branger & Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Oliver Sartor & Misato Sato, 2015. "EU ETS, Free Allocations, and Activity Level Thresholds: The Devil Lies in the Details," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 401-437.
    6. Junxiao Wei & Kuang Cen, 2019. "A preliminary calculation of cement carbon dioxide in China from 1949 to 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1343-1362, December.
    7. Tao Du & Jian Wang & Heming Wang & Xin Tian & Qiang Yue & Hiroki Tanikawa, 2020. "CO2 emissions from the Chinese cement sector: Analysis from both the supply and demand sides," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(4), pages 923-934, August.
    8. Dong, Kangyin & Hochman, Gal & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2020. "Do drivers of CO2 emission growth alter overtime and by the stage of economic development?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Onat, Nuri Cihat & Kucukvar, Murat, 2020. "Carbon footprint of construction industry: A global review and supply chain analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Jie Su & Bo Zhou & Yuanpei Liao & Chaoshen Wang & Tian Feng, 2022. "Impact Mechanism of the Urban Network on Carbon Emissions in Rapidly Developing Regions: Example of 47 Cities in Southwest China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, March.
    11. Li, Wei & Gao, Shubin, 2018. "Prospective on energy related carbon emissions peak integrating optimized intelligent algorithm with dry process technique application for China's cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 33-54.
    12. Forin, Silvia & Radebach, Alexander & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Ward, Hauke, 2018. "The effect of industry delocalization on global energy use: A global sectoral perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 233-243.
    13. Guangyue Xu & Dong Xue & Hafizur Rehman, 2022. "Dynamic scenario analysis of CO2 emission in China’s cement industry by 2100 under the context of cutting overcapacity," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 1-40, December.
    14. Frédéric Branger & Oskar Lecuyer & Philippe Quirion, 2015. "The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme: should we throw the flagship out with the bathwater?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 9-16, January.
    15. Fabio Zagonari, 2016. "Four Sustainability Paradigms for Environmental Management: A Methodological Analysis and an Empirical Study Based on 30 Italian Industries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-34, May.
    16. Stefano Clo' & Gianluca Iannucci & Alessandro Tampieri, 2024. "Emission permits and firms' environmental responsibility," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_06.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    17. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index approach to assess the roles of economic factors on industrial CO2 emissions of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 101-114.
    18. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Investigating the drivers of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s industrial sector: From regional and provincial perspectives," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 136-147.
    19. Raza, Muhammad Yousaf & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Future outlook and influencing factors analysis of natural gas consumption in Bangladesh: An economic and policy perspectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cement Industry; LMDI; EU ETS; Abatement; Overallocation; Windfall Profits; Overallocation Profits; Carbon Emissions; Energy Efficiency.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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