[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/euf/dispap/028.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Katia Berti
  • Eugeniu Colesnic
  • Cyril Desponts
  • Stephanie Pamies
  • Etienne Sail
Abstract
This paper estimates country-specific fiscal reaction functions (FRFs) for selected European countries and tests for a change in fiscal behaviour since the beginning of the economic and financial crisis. The estimated country-specific FRFs, as well as a panel FRF for Central and Eastern European countries, are used in medium-term projections of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Additional results in terms of fiscal risk assessment based on this FRF debt projection scenario and on the degree of realism of fiscal projections underlying public debt projections are also derived. Most EU countries are found to positively adjust their fiscal policy to rising levels of public debt, although to a weak extent in some cases. Since 2009, fiscal responsiveness to public debt appears to have generally increased over the sub-sample of EU countries considered. When using FRFs to project public debt ratios, results are on average less favourable than under the standard baseline no-fiscal policy change scenario used by the Commission services. However, for most countries, results generally corroborate the summary medium-term sustainability risk assessment made by the European Commission services (2016) based on more traditional debt projection scenarios and sensitivity tests. The paper also identifies a set of countries that are potentially at risk of fiscal fatigue.

Suggested Citation

  • Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/fiscal-reaction-functions-european-union-countries_en
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baldi, Guido & Staehr, Karsten, 2016. "The European debt crisis and fiscal reactions in Europe 2000-2014," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 297-317.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Mauro, Paolo & Romeu, Rafael & Binder, Ariel & Zaman, Asad, 2015. "A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-70.
    4. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    5. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    6. Alessandro Piergallini & Michele Postigliola, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy, 1861-2009," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 417-440.
    7. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Raphael A Espinoza, 2015. "When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/10, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Legrenzi, Gabriella & Milas, Costas, 2013. "Modelling the fiscal reaction functions of the GIPS based on state-varying thresholds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 384-389.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    10. Henning Bohn, 2005. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1446, CESifo.
    11. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2013. "Stochastic debt sustainability indicators," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 97-121.
    12. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    14. Luiz de Mello, 2008. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function: the case of debt sustainability in Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 271-284.
    15. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2012. "When is debt sustainable?," CPB Discussion Paper 212, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Barry Eichengreen & Ugo Panizza, 2016. "A surplus of ambition: can Europe rely on large primary surpluses to solve its debt problem?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 5-49.
    17. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2013. "Fiscal space and sovereign risk pricing in a currency union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-163.
    18. Charl Jooste & Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Ian C. Stuart & Philippe Burger, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2011/069, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    20. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    21. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    22. Bettina Fincke & Alfred Greiner, 2012. "How to assess debt sustainability? Some theory and empirical evidence for selected euro area countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(28), pages 3717-3724, October.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    24. João Medeiros, 2012. "Stochastic debt simulation using VAR models and a panel fiscal reaction function – results for a selected number of countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 459, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    25. Christian Schoder, 2014. "The fundamentals of sovereign debt sustainability: evidence from 15 OECD countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 247-271, May.
    26. Fincke, Bettina & Greiner, Alfred, 2011. "Do large industrialized economies pursue sustainable debt policies? A comparative study for Japan, Germany and the United States," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 202-213.
    27. Katia Berti, 2013. "Stochastic public debt projections using the historical variance-covariance matrix approach for EU countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 480, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taner Turan & Pelin Varol Iyidogan, 2022. "Estimating Fiscal Reaction Functions for Developing and Developed Countries: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(5), pages 393-410, May.
    2. Giannini, Bianca & Oldani, Chiara, 2022. "Asymmetries in the sustainability of public debt in the EU: The use of swaps," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    3. Everaert, Gerdie & Jansen, Stijn, 2018. "On the estimation of panel fiscal reaction functions: Heterogeneity or fiscal fatigue?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 87-96.
    4. Franc Klaassen, Roel Beetsma and Joao Tovar Jalles, 2023. "How do governments respond to interest rates?," Working Papers REM 2023/0280, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    6. Aurel IANCU & Dan Constantin OLTEANU, 2022. "Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Policies in Non-Euro EU Member Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 188-205, October.
    7. Okwoche Princewill U. & Iheonu Chimere O., 2021. "Determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African countries: Does conflict matter?," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 50-73, June.
    8. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-97.
    9. Rai da Silva Chicoli & Siegfried Bender, 2019. "Estimation of maximum debt for emerging countries: An analysis by fiscal reaction function," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_44, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    10. Dubravko Mihaljek, 2023. "Inflation and public finances: an overview," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 413-430.
    11. Joan Maria Mussons Olivella, 2020. "Fiscal Responsiveness to Public Debt: An Analysis of Regional Debt Limit Uncertainty in Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 55-83, June.
    12. Frane Banic & Dominik Ivan Pripuzic & Pave Rebic, 2023. "Short- and medium-term fiscal positions in a high-inflation environment: the case of Croatia," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 461-475.
    13. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    14. Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    15. Amélie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Nicolas MAZUY, 2018. "Country-specific fiscal reaction functions: what lessons for EMU ?," Working Papers of BETA 2018-28, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    16. Vladimir Arcabic & Frane Banic, 2021. "Characteristics of fiscal policy in Croatia: does it depend on the phase of the business cycle?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 433-457.
    17. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Palazzo, Alessandra Anna & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2019. "Fiscal activism in the euro area and in other advanced economies: new evidence," Working Paper Series 2344, European Central Bank.
    18. Briodeau, Clémence & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina, 2023. "Inflation and fiscal policy: is there a threshold effect in the fiscal reaction function?," Working Paper Series 2880, European Central Bank.
    19. Karsten Staehr & Olegs Tkacevs & Katri Urke, 2023. "Fiscal performance under inflation and inflation surprises: evidence from fiscal reaction functions for the Euro Area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Jun 2023.
    20. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    2. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    3. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-97.
    4. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    5. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Okwoche Princewill U. & Iheonu Chimere O., 2021. "Determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African countries: Does conflict matter?," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 50-73, June.
    7. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    8. Everaert, Gerdie & Jansen, Stijn, 2018. "On the estimation of panel fiscal reaction functions: Heterogeneity or fiscal fatigue?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 87-96.
    9. Lawrence Ogbeifun & Olatunji Shobande, 2020. "Debt sustainability and the fiscal reaction function: evidence from MIST countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.
    10. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Sakuragawa, Yukie, 2020. "Government fiscal projection and debt sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Lees, Kirdan, 2013. "Fighting fit? Assessing New Zealand’s fiscal sustainability," NZIER Working Paper 2013/5, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    12. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi & Getachew, Yoseph Yilma & Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2016. "Optimal Public Investment, Growth, And Consumption: Evidence From African Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(8), pages 1957-1986, December.
    13. Kilman, Josefin, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Income Inequality in the United States: The Role of Labor Unions," Working Papers 2020:10, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2022.
    14. Warmedinger, Thomas & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Drudi, Francesco & Setzer, Ralph & De Stefani, Roberta & Bouabdallah, Othman & Westphal, Andreas, 2017. "Debt sustainability analysis for euro area sovereigns: a methodological framework," Occasional Paper Series 185, European Central Bank.
    15. Augustin Kwasi Fosu & Yoseph Getachew & Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2014. "Optimal Public Investment, Growth, and Consumption: Fresh Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers 201464, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Beutler, Toni & Bichsel, Robert & Bruhin, Adrian & Danton, Jayson, 2020. "The impact of interest rate risk on bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.
    18. Roberto Dell'Anno & Adalgiso Amendola, 2015. "Social Exclusion and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation in European Economies," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 274-301, June.
    19. Mohcine Bakhat & José M. Labeaga & Xavier Labandeira & Xiral Lñpez, 2013. "Economic Crisis and Elasticities of Car Fuels: Evidence for Spain," Working Papers fa15-2013, Economics for Energy.
    20. Tomasz Łyziak & Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak, 2019. "Sustainability of Public Finances in European Economies: Fiscal Policy Reactions and Market Pricing," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 3-19, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ECFIN INFO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dg2ecbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.