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Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of The 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results

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  • Ali T. Akarca
  • Aysit Tansel
Abstract
1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election and the economic and political conditions surrounding it were utilized to study the relationship between the government=s economic performance and the vote shares of political parties. Turkish voters are found to be myopic, not looking back beyond the election year in assessing the government=s economic performance. A good performance is found to benefit the primary incumbent party at the expense of extremist opposition parties and a bad performance is found to benefit extremist opposition parties at the expense of the primary party in power. The junior party in a coalition government and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by the economic conditions. Evidence found is consistent with a strategic voting by the electorate, to diffuse power and/or to try parties and leaders that were not tried before or last tried a long time ago. These conclusions are essentially in conformity with the literature on other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2003. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of The 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results," Working Papers 0321, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:0321
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. May Elsayyad & Shima’a Hanafy, 2014. "Voting Islamist or voting secular? An empirical analysis of voting outcomes in Egypt’s “Arab Spring”," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 109-130, July.
    2. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2008. "Impact of the 1999 Earthquakes on the Outcome of the 2002 Parliamentary Election in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 3466, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Hazama, Yasushi, 2012. "Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey," IDE Discussion Papers 340, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    4. Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.
    5. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2016. "Voter reaction to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 309-335, May.
    6. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2012. "Turkish voter response to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes," MPRA Paper 35894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Luca, Davide, 2016. "Votes and Regional Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 477-495.
    8. Cem BASLEVENT, 2001. "Party Preferences and Economic Voting in Turkey (Now That the Crisis is Over)," Middle East and North Africa 330400008, EcoMod.
    9. Ali T. Akarca, 2015. "Modeling political performance of Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties in Turkey," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 49-69, January.
    10. Onur Altındağ & Neeraj Kaushal, 2021. "Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 149-178, January.
    11. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6182, CESifo.
    12. Che-Yuan Liang, 2013. "Is there an incumbency advantage or cost of ruling in proportional election systems?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 259-284, March.
    13. Ali T. Akarca & Cem Baslevent, 2010. "Inter-party Vote Movements in Turkey: The Role of Economic Evaluations," Working Papers 509, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2010.
    14. Ali T. Akarca, 2017. "Economic Voting Under Single-Party and Coalition Governments: Evidence From The Turkish Case," Working Papers 1128, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 2017.
    15. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2008. "Impact of the 1999 Earthquakes and the 2001 Economic Crisis on the Outcome of the 2002 Parliamentary Election in Turkey," Working Papers 397, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2008.
    16. May Elsayyad & Shima’a Hanafy, 2013. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in "Arab Spring" Egypt," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2013-01, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    17. Ali Akarca, 2018. "Political Determinants of Government Structure and Economic Performance in Turkey since 1950," Working Papers 1241, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
    18. May Elsayyad & Shima'a Hanafy, 2012. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in “Arab Spring” Egypt," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201251, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    19. Hasan Ersel, 2013. "Politico-Economic Development of Turkey and The Transformation of Political Islam," Working Papers 746, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2013.
    20. Ali T. Akarca, 2010. "Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-38.
    21. Ali T. Akarca, 2014. "How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, September.
    22. Fırat Gündem, 2023. "Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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