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A simple model of multiple equilibria and sovereign default

Author

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  • Gros, Daniel
Abstract
This Working Document by Daniel Gros presents a simple model that incorporates two types of sovereign default cost: first, a lump-sum cost due to the fact that the country does not service its debt fully and is recognised as being in default status, by ratings agencies, for example. Second, a cost that increases with the size of the losses (or haircut) imposed on creditors whose resistance to a haircut increases with the proportional loss inflicted upon them. One immediate implication of the model is that under some circumstances the creditors have a (collective) interest to forgive some debt in order to induce the country not to default. The model exhibits a potential for multiple equilibria, given that a higher interest rate charged by investors increases the debt service burden and thus the temptation to default. Under very high debt levels credit rationing can set in as the feedback loop between higher interest rates and the higher incentive to default can become explosive. The introduction of uncertainty makes multiple equilibria less likely and reduces their range.

Suggested Citation

  • Gros, Daniel, 2012. "A simple model of multiple equilibria and sovereign default," CEPS Papers 7174, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:7174
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    File URL: http://www.ceps.eu/system/files/book/2012/07/WD366%20DG%20Multiple%20Equilibria.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Blot, Christophe & Ducoudré, Bruno & Timbeau, Xavier, 2016. "Sovereign debt spread and default in a model with self-fulfilling prophecies and asymmetric information," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 281-299.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2017. "Risk assessment on euro area government bond markets – The role of governance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 104-117.
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    6. Valerio Filoso, Valerio & Panico, Carlo & Papagni, Erasmo & Francesco, Purificato & Vázquez Suarez, Marta, 2016. "Causes and timing of the European debt crisis: An econometric evaluation," MPRA Paper 75847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Belke Ansgar, 2013. "Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures – Magic Wand or Tiger by the Tail?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 64(3), pages 341-368, December.
    8. Philippe Bacchetta & Elena Perazzi & Eric van Wincoop, 2015. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: Can Monetary Policy Really Help?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 15.06, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    9. Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "Heterogeneous Market Beliefs, Fundamentals and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Eurozone," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82, pages 1153-1176, December.
    10. Bacchetta, Philippe & Perazzi, Elena & van Wincoop, Eric, 2018. "Self-fulfilling debt crises: What can monetary policy do?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 119-134.
    11. Saka, Orkun & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2015. "ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-185.
    12. Ansgar Belke, 2013. "Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures – Magic Wand or Tiger by the Tail?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0447, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Gros, Daniel, 2014. "The EMS Crisis of the 1990s: Parallels with the present crisis?," CEPS Papers 9119, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    15. Giuliana Passamani & Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2014. "Sustainability vs. credibility of fiscal consolidation. A Principal Components test for the Euro Zone," DEM Discussion Papers 2014/09, Department of Economics and Management.

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