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Democracy, economic development and lowcarbon energy: when and why does democratisation promote energy transition?

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  • Zeynep Clulow
  • David M. Reiner
Abstract
Despite the growing consensus surrounding the need to decarbonize power for meeting the ambitious temperature target set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement, the share of low-carbon energy sources in the overall energy mix varies significantly across countries and over time. We evaluate the influence of democracy on clean energy transition by studying national solar, wind, hydro and nuclear energy shares of total energy use for electricity generation from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy, Freedom House and Polity IV democracy indices, International Energy Agency Extended Energy Balances and Summary Statistics and World Bank World Development Indicators, we conduct a large-N study of the emissions levels of 135 countries. This article develops existing understandings about the relationship between democracy and energy transition by employing a more sophisticated – hierarchical – research design to determine whether: (i) democracy continues to be an important driver of low-carbon energy use once country-level clustering is accounted for, (ii) fluctuations in the democratic attributes of domestic political regimes have uniform effects across countries and (iii), if so, economic development plays a role in shaping the effect of democracy within individual countries. The results suggest that, even after controlling for country-level clustering and other putative drivers of energy portfolios, democracy has a significant effect on the low-carbon energy sources examined here. A second-order regression of country-specific democracy effects estimated by our hierarchical model provides robust evidence that economic development plays an important role in shaping the effect of democracy within individual countries: Strikingly, democratic spells (of increased democratic institutions and processes) in advanced economies tend to inhibit solar, wind and hydro energy, but promote nuclear energy use, while having the opposite effects (promoting solar, wind and
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  • Zeynep Clulow & David M. Reiner, 2022. "Democracy, economic development and lowcarbon energy: when and why does democratisation promote energy transition?," Working Papers EPRG2218, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2218
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renewable energy; solar; wind; hydro; geothermal; nuclear; energy transition; decarbonisation; democracy; electricity generation; energy mix; economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • P18 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Energy; Environment
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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