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The role of expectations for market design - on structural regulatory uncertainty in electricity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mirjam Ambrosius

    (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU))

  • Jonas Egerer

    (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU))

  • Veronika Grimm

    (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU))

  • Adriaan H van der Weijde

    (University of Edinburgh)

Abstract
Ongoing policy discussions on the reconfiguration of bidding zones in European electricity markets induce structural uncertainty about the future market design. This paper deals with the question of how this structural uncertainty affects market participants and their long-run investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. We propose a stochastic multilevel model, which incorporates generation capacity investment, network expansion and redispatch, taking into account uncertainty about the future market design. Using a stylized two-node network, we disentangle different effects that uncertainty has on market outcomes. Our results reveal that expectations about future market structures have an important effect on investment decisions. Unlike most parametric uncertainties, structural uncertainty about the future market design can have a positive effect on welfare, even if a market design change does not actually take place, although there are distributional effects. This also implies that the welfare gains of a change to a more efficient market design are lower if market participants already anticipate this change.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Mirjam Ambrosius & Jonas Egerer & Veronika Grimm & Adriaan H van der Weijde, 2019. "The role of expectations for market design - on structural regulatory uncertainty in electricity markets," Working Papers EPRG1915, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neuhoff, Karsten & Barquin, Julian & Bialek, Janusz W. & Boyd, Rodney & Dent, Chris J. & Echavarren, Francisco & Grau, Thilo & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Kunz, Friedrich & Nabe, 2013. "Renewable electric energy integration: Quantifying the value of design of markets for international transmission capacity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 760-772.
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    9. Daxhelet, O. & Smeers, Y., 2007. "The EU regulation on cross-border trade of electricity: A two-stage equilibrium model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1396-1412, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Alexander & Schmidt, Martin & Seith, Benjamin & Vogl, Nikolai, 2021. "Portfolio optimization with irreversible long-term investments in renewable energy under policy risk: A mixed-integer multistage stochastic model and a moving-horizon approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 734-748.
    3. Simshauser, Paul & Billimoria, Farhad & Rogers, Craig, 2022. "Optimising VRE capacity in Renewable Energy Zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity; investment; structural uncertainty; market design; bidding zones; nodal pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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