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Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Riza Demirer

    (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville)

  • Shawkat Hammoudeh

    (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France)

Abstract
This study extends the literature on the asymmetric effect of oil price fluctuations on emerging and frontier stock markets via a quantile-on-quantile approach that allows to capture normal and extreme states in each respective market. We find that oil risk exposures are heterogeneous across the emerging and frontier stock markets and indeed display quantile-specific characteristics. Observing uniform patterns of oil risk exposures within groups of countries that include both importers and exporters, we argue that oil price risk serves as a systematic risk proxy, capturing the market’s concerns regarding global growth expectations, rather than a simple import/export commodity. Our findings suggest that signals from the oil market, either via measures of trading activity in oil futures or changes in basis values, could be utilized by policy makers to improve models of stock market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2019. "Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets," Working Papers 15-48, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-48.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; Oil prices; Quantile regression; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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